Game probabilities for the conference champtionship games are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I estimate the value of Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith in terms of their effect on the probability of winning.
Conference Championship Game Probabilities
published on 1/17/2013
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Brian How much of Atlanta's rating is because of their ridiculously low Penalties total?Where would they rank with average Penalties?
If they had an average penalty rate (about .41 yds per play), it would drop them 5% points. In other words they'd be at a .60/.40 disadvantage vs SF rather than the .55/.45 they are now.
This is probably worth a full post.
Thanks Brian.