Weekly Game Probabilities: A New Home

This season the weekly game probabilities will be featured at Sports on Earth. Each game will have the probability, a score prediction, and a couple notes on why the numbers are what they are. In the early weeks of the season, the numbers are at least partially based on the same preseason estimates of team strength I used for the season projections. But as we get a few weeks of data, those preseason ratings will fade out.

For now the score predictions are simply maximum-plausibility estimates. (Yes, I just made that term up.) Predicting an actual score for each game is statistically boring. With few exceptions, a statistically sound estimate would be 24-20 or 27-21 for every game, so I've added some of the human element to the score predictions. The bottom line is that readers should focus on the probabilities and don't bet the mortgage on the scores.

The game probabilities will be matched up against the picks of Will Lietch, one of the cornerstone writers at SOE. The idea is to create a friendly competition between man and machine.

The game probabilities had a great run at the New York Times--5 years. But there are only so many thought-provoking or counter-intuitive lessons on probabilities and predictions that can be squeezed out of a week of NFL games. But AFA will continue working with the Times on various projects as the season unfolds.

Here's the link to the probabilities for week one. For those keeping score at home, I had the Seahawks at 66% to win last night.

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3 Responses to “Weekly Game Probabilities: A New Home”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Great thanks..could u post the prob. line on SEA GB ? I would really appreciate it thanks Mike

  2. Anonymous says:

    Erm, shouldn't those predictions be a bit tamer??? Almost all the favorites covering? Realistic mean projected point differential would be much better

  3. Anonymous says:

    Definitely missing the old table format. Could future weeks have a chart at the beginning or end summarizing the picks?

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