Overtime Field Goal Gaffes Galore

The Vikings ended up in overtime for the second consecutive week, this time against the Chicago Bears. After a quick Bears' three-and-out, the Vikings drove down field to the Bears 21-yard line. The game is now in sudden death format, so a field goal wins it. Unfortunately, in the NFL there is the myth of field goal range. The summation of that article is in bold at the bottom: "Closer is always better."

I first want to mention that field goal kicking has improved dramatically over the last few years, and the two kickers involved in this game (Robbie Gould and Blair Walsh) are among the very best in the league. The Vikings, facing a 3rd-and-10 from the Bears 21, opted to attempt a 39-yarder rather than try to get closer. For Blair Walsh, this is seen as a gimme. In today's NFL, that is about an 87% proposition. Very likely, although still more than a 1-in-10 chance he misses.

Cardinals Don't Believe Closer is Better

With three minutes left in the game, the Cardinals got the ball on their own 15-yard line, down 16-13 to the Bills. John Skelton, in for the injured Kevin Kolb after the fourth play of the drive, leads the offense to the Buffalo 43-yard line where they stall on three straight incomplete passes. So, it's 4th-and-10 with 1:14 remaining, do you attempt the 61-yard field goal for the tie, or try to convert the 4th-and-long?

Groupthink in the NFL says attempt the field goal, but as those avid readers will certainly know, groupthink is often far too conservative. Here is the breakdown, via Brian's 4th-down calculator: