Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 12

Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from the Thursday games.

It looks like the AFC teams remain relatively firm. As of now, the Colts, Bengals, Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Chargers are on the inside track. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Houston are on the outside looking in.

Not much has changed for the NFC either. The top teams have a tight hold on playoff spots, but the wildcards are up for grabs. The Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals each have a good grip on their divisions if they keep playing well. The Cowboys are the class of the East at the moment, and have a good shot at a wildcard if they don't take the division. The other contenders include the Eagles, Giants, Packers, Falcons, and the 49ers.

Game Probabilities - Week 12

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also discuss the major shortcoming of a purely quantitative approach to game predictions.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 12

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Offenses Run Too Often On 1st Down

NFL offenses generally run too often on 1st down. Accounting for the relative gains of each play type, and accounting for the risks of turnovers, offenses should pass more. There is currently an imbalance, where teams are too often running directly into defenses that are expecting runs.

Game theory tells us that when there are two strategy options, like run and pass, the expected payoffs for both options should be equal. You really don't need game theory to intuitively understand this. If one option yields a better payoff, then it should be chosen until the opponent responds with a strategy change of his own. Eventually, as the opponent responds, the payoffs for the two options equalize. The point at which the strategy mix equalizes payoffs is known as the minimax, or sometimes called the Nash equilibrium. The resulting strategy mix, or run-pass balance in this case, produces the best overall, long-run payoff.

When there are two strategy options and one of them yields a much higher payoff, it tells us two things. In this case, passing is more lucrative than running on 1st down, and this tells us: 1) offenses should be passing more often, and 2) for now, defenses should continue to be more biased toward stopping the run.

Last Thoughts on the 4th and 2

At the risk of being accused of milking this thing, here are some final few thoughts on the topic. I watched the Football Night in America segment and a few things struck me.

Let me say I have a lot of respect for Coach Dungy. I also think that convincing someone skeptical is difficult, and we shouldn't expect someone to immediately come around. In general though, coaches (and former players/analysts) benefit from a perception that football is some unknowable mystery, and that they are the only priests that can divine the true answers.

From Dungy's perspective, he's enjoyed long career by doing it the conventional way. But the reason his way worked was because everyone else played the same way. To change his mind now might mean admitting, "I did it wrong all these years." That's a tough hurdle to overcome.

Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 11

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from the Thursday night Dolphins-Panthers game.

It looks like the AFC teams are relatively firm. As of now, the Colts, Bengals, Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Chargers are on the inside track. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Houston are on the outside looking in.

The top NFC teams have a tight hold on playoff spots, but the wildcards are up for grabs. The Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals each have a good grip on their divisions if they keep playing well. The Cowboys are the class of the East at the moment, and have a good shot at a wildcard if they don't take the division. The other contenders include the Eagles, Giants, Packers, Falcons, and even the 49ers.

ESPN Interview

ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown will be doing a piece on 4th down decisions this weekend. The focus will center around Bill Belichick and his thoughts on the topic in an interview they did with him a few years ago. At the time, they also interviewed Dr. David Romer, author of 'Do Firms Maximize.' Yesterday, ESPN re-interviewed Romer, and interviewed me too. I'm anxious to see how it turns out.

I'm told it will probably air a few minutes before noon EST on Sunday. Set your DVRs now!

ESPN also talked about my take on '4th-and-2-gate' on the Monday Night Football pre-game earlier this week. A lot of people were harsh on Matt Millen and Steve Young for their comments, but I think they asked exactly the right questions. Young said, 'Is that in context? I'd want to see that in context.' I presume he wants to know if the score and time remaining were considered. Millen asked, 'But does that take into account the Colts offense?' They were rightfully skeptical, but they zeroed in on the heart of the matter immediately. I have to give them a lot of credit.

'Patriots Lead Colts at Halftime' - The Onion

The guys at the Onion have previously made their opinions known about 4th down decisions. This time they take on the Patriots' 4th down call from Sunday night. Too funny for words.

Belichick told reporters..."The only time they've been able to stop us is on on short-yardage passing plays, so if we're careful to execute and avoid any situation where we give Peyton Manning excellent field position, I'm extremely confident we'll leave here with a 'W.'

Thanks to Justin for the pointer.