Super Bowl Win Probability Graph

We'll see if the new online server can handle the load.

The new address for live games is live.advancednflstats.com. Share your thoughts on the (now automatically refreshing) chat/comment feature.

The new address for the mobile version is live.advancednflstats.com/WPmobileLive.php. It works on all web-accessible devices, including iPhones, Androids, and Blackberries. It's also a good substitute for any browser that doesn't play nice with Flash.

And for those of you with your own sites, remember you can add the graph with these few lines of code:

<iframe width="500" height="450" frameborder="0" src="http://live.advancednflstats.com/featureGraph.html" name="game" ></iframe>

As Carson says, Go Football!

Ten Super Bowl Predictions

Aaron Rodgers' Milwaukee-area home.

As our host in these pages, Brian Burke, has established, there are two things humans love more than anything: lists and predictions (and the Twilight movies, too, turns out, but let's limit our scope to the first two items for right now). Burke's weekly game probabilities -- themselves lists of predictions -- are wildly popular for this reason.

Always one to ride the coattails of his more talented and well-liked colleagues, I've submitted here a list of ten predictions for tomorrow's (Sunday's) Super Bowl.

Here they are, sans delay.

1. Aaron Rodgers will complete a thousand-yard pass -- to one of heaven's angels.

Roundup 2/5/2011

Please welcome Outside the Hashes to the advanced stats community.

The Rams Herd uses advanced stats to compare STL's MVP candidates.

Does defense really win championships? A couple more stabs at the question.

How much does NFL playoff seeding matter? Obviously the 1 and 2 seeds have a very substantial advantage simply due to the bye. Home field is a big plus too. Beyond that I doubt the seeding matters in terms of strength of draw for a lot of reasons. The post at the link appears to confirm that.

Bradford and Suh won rookie of the year honors. But between the two, Suh has clearly made the bigger first-year impact. Bradford still has a lot of potential, but he was 33rd in total EPA for all QBs. Suh ranked 2nd in +EPA for all defensive tackles. He was 7th in TF. He led the league for all DTs with 10 sacks and 17 QB hits.

Advanced NFL Stats Replay: Biggest WPA Plays in Super Bowl History

Perhaps last August wasn't the best time to post this article. This week seems somewhat more appropriate, and maybe next week we'll have a new addition to the list.

Before you read the list, what do you think the biggest play was? (Hint: The picture on the left does not give it away.)

Super Bowl Match-Up

If I put up a post that discussed the Packers' and Steelers' statistics in meticulously detailed prose, comparing every possible conventional and advanced stat for both teams and their top players, it would be read by about 10,000 readers by tomorrow.

But if there were a standing page that compiled those same stats automatically and put them on one big cheat-sheet for you, it would get 12 readers. How do I know it would be 12? Because there is such a page, and that's how many people have visited it today. So I don't think I've done a very good job of promoting the match-up page.

Want to compare the Packers' and Steelers' offensive run success rates?

Super Bowl Game Probability

The Super Bowl game probability is available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. Find out what happens to the probability when the each team's passing stats are limited to just those of their starting QBs. Plus, is the Packers' image benefiting from the recency effect?

Want to Work for an NFL Team?

An NFL team is looking for a young analyst with computer skills and an econ or comp sci background. Here are the only details I can give:

NFL team looking for statistical analyst. The successful candidate will have a Computer Science or Econ background and be proficient with basic computer code / Stata.  Football specific experience not required.  Entry level position.  Terms/salary TBD.  If interested, submit resume and cover letter to NFLstatjob@gmail.com.

Sorry, I can't answer any questions beyond that.

Attention Webmasters: Win Probability Widget

Webmasters? Does anyone use that term any more? In any case, if you run a website or blog, particularly a Steelers site or Packers site, you can now include live win probability graphs on your own home page. I've created a widget with some simple html code, and the Super Bowl is a great opportunity to try it out.

I'm able to do this because I've added another server that will handle a much greater traffic load. As regular visitors will attest, the demand for the live graphs would often crash the site, especially during nationally televised games. Hopefully, that's a thing of past because it drove me crazy resetting the server over and over. The new link for live WP graphs is http://live.advancednflstats.com, but the old link will still work too.