Grossman's Game-Clinching Drive

The Redskins stunned the Giants on Sunday, winning 28-14 after shutting out Coughlin and crew in the second half.  After a Rex Grossman fumble to start the 4th quarter, the Redskins blocked a 38-yard Lawrence Tynes field goal attempt and the momentum swung in their favor.  Starting from their own 30, Washington went on a 6-minute, 10-play drive, culminating in a game-clinching touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney.

Using a Markov model of a football drive, we can calculate the probability of a drive ending in any possible way: TD, field goal, turnover, punt, etc...

Here is a look at the Redskins final scoring drive:

The biggest play of the drive? Play 4.  Backed into a 3rd-and-9 on their own 45, Grossman completes a 7-yard pass to Fred Davis - short of the first down.  Enter Antrel Rolle: a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty keeps the drive alive and vastly shifts the probabilities.  Before the penalty, there was over a 60% probability the drive would end in a punt and only a 12% chance of a TD.  After the penalty, the punt probability drops to 5% and TD probability jumps to 37%.

The Redskins converted three 3rd-downs on the drive (plays 4, 7 and 10), ultimately scoring on a 3rd-and-4.  We see these 3rd-downs highlighted in the expected points:

Note: These expected points are based on the probability of scoring on one drive.  This expected points model differs from Brian's expected points model in a few ways, the most notable of which is that it does not include the interaction between drives.

Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform. 

Please Welcome Keith Goldner

Keith has agreed to be a contributor here at Advanced NFL Stats this season. He's been doing his own modeling and analysis at his site Drive-By-Football for several months. I was so impressed, I sought out Keith before my call for writers last week.

Keith is a true stat-head. Aside from Drive-By, he is the chief analyst at numberFire, a slick and smart fantasy-oriented site. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from Northwestern with a B.A. in math. Keith has worked with two NBA franchises - Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers - doing statistical analysis and data management. In addition, he has worked with ESPN and the Wall Street Journal, contributing analysis across multiple platforms, and his sports analytics research has been featured at conferences across the nation.

Keith won't be confined to the GWP, WPA, AYPA environment. He has adapted his own Expected Points model (which has a clearer name--Net Expected Points).

So please welcome Keith. We can expect his first post very soon.
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On another note, I have only begun reviewing all the responses for my call for writers. I was overwhelmed with all the interest. I intend to select an additional writer or two later this week.

Will the New Kickoff Rules Really Reduce Injuries?

The NFL play-by-play reports when players are injured on each play, or at least when the injury stops play so trainers can attend to the injured player. These are far from 100% all injuries suffered in the course of play, but they are the ones that tend to be significant or severe--ACLs, broken bones, separated shoulders, concussions--the kind of things that really worry players, teams, and the league.

With that information in hand, we can see the injury rates for each type of play, including kickoffs.

The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week One

Jay Cutler has fallen and doesn't want to get up.

This week's edition of The Weekly League features

1. Heat-seeking previews for the Atlanta-Chicago, Minnesota-San Diego, and New England-Miami football games.

2. A total and purposeful omission of the Sunday night game between Dallas and the Jets.

and

3. A photo of Jay Cutler looking groggy -- i.e. basically the only type of photo of Jay Cutler on the internet.

Atlanta at Chicago | Sunday, September 11 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors


Notes
• Against his better judgment, the author remains the sort of person who's pretty sure the Cutler-Martz Experiment will succeed.
• In fact, it sorta did succeed last year -- in that Cutler finished seventh among 31 qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt, at 7.6 (compared to a league average of 7.0).
• Unfortunately, when considering net yards per attempt -- which also accounts for sacks -- Cutler finished 21st overall, at 6.0 (relative to the league average of 6.2).
• The Bears, of course, finished with a league-worst 10.7% sack rate.
• That Cutler's career sack rate is just 5.9% (i.e. about league average) and the Bears drafted lineman Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin bodes well for the team's passing attack (i.e. the thing that wins games).

Attention Bloggers: Win Probability Widget for 2011

If you run a website or blog, you can now include live win probability graphs on your own site. I've created a widget with some simple html code, and now it's available for all teams and all games.

Add the end of last season, I added another server that will handle a much greater traffic load. As regular visitors will attest, the demand for the live graphs would often crash the site, especially during nationally televised games. Hopefully, that's a thing of past. (The new link for live WP graphs is http://live.advancednflstats.com, but the old link will still work too.)

The WP widget is just like the smaller version of the graph I show on my main page during live games. Just add the following html snippet to your site.

<iframe width="500" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" src="http://live.advancednflstats.com/featureGraph.php?team=GB" name="game" ></iframe>

Chose which team's game you want to show, and replace the bit that says ?team=GB with ?team=PIT or ...=BLT or ...=SEA or whichever team's abbreviation you like. That team's current or most recent game will automatically appear. This way, you won't have to update the code snippet each week. If you run a Jaguars fan site, just leave it at ?team=JAX all season.

Advanced Box Scores

I teased this last week, and now the switch has been flipped. All final Win Probability graphs now include individual player advanced stat box scores.

They're better seen than described, so go ahead and check out last year's Super Bowl.

For each team, I've included the top 2 QBs, top 3 RBs, top 5 WRs/TEs, and top 7 defenders in terms of WPA to be included. Advanced stats for the full team can be seen by clicking on the Team Offense or Team Defense table headers. Due to space limitations, I had to decide which stats to include, so I focused on the ones that you don't tend to see other places--things like targets for WRs.

So get to it:

Call for Writers for 2011

This is probably long overdue, but I’m excited to announce that Advanced NFL Stats is planning to add a small number of contributors this season. I already have a couple writers lined up, and I’m looking for a limited number of additional smart, analytical thinkers to bring a fresh perspective to the world of NFL stats. Previous analytic or blogging experience is preferred, but not required.

Those interested should email me directly (see the About - Contact/FAQ menu link) with an introduction and links or attachments of 2 or more examples of your analysis and writing. If you have no previous experience, you can send ‘demo’ drafts of the kind of stuff you’d like to do.

In particular, I’m looking for contributors to ‘own’ a regular weekly assignment. For example (these are just random thoughts off the top of my head):

How Many Wins Is Manning Really Worth?

It seems that's the big question lately, with Peyton Manning doubtful for Sunday as he rehabilitates his neck. The football punditeratti say there is no other individual player so critical to his team's success than Manning, and they're probably correct.

Win Probability Added (WPA) can't do everything, but one of the things it can do extremely well is tell us exactly how much of every win or loss was due to one component of a team. In this case, it can tell us how many wins the Peyton Manning passing game can account for. Although we can't really separate Manning from his blockers and receivers, we can nail down a hard number for the Colts passing game as a whole, of which Manning has been the central fixture.

Since 2000 (as far back as my data goes), Manning played in 176 regular-season games and accumulated a total of 43.0 WPA, for an average of 3.8 WPA per season. This equates to 0.24 WPA per game, which means that Manning (and his passing offense) would give an otherwise perfectly average team a 74% chance of winning a game. In other words, he would take an 8-win team and make them an 11.8-win team.