Game Changers: Browner Reads the Option

The Situation
Seahawks at Panthers, Week 5
3rd Quarter, 2:46 left to go
Panthers ball, 1st and 10 from their own 30

New Site Feature: Permanent Air Yards Page

I often get asked to post an updated table of QB Air Yards. As much as I like the concept, it was always a pain to generate. Air Yards calculations require YAC data, which is easy enough to find for receivers but difficult to attribute to the passer. To make things even more difficult, the information comes from completely different resources as the rest of the stats on the site. As a result I'd have to copy and paste data from the web, do the calculations in Excel then create a table for insertion into a post.

I've finally managed to automate the process, so now we can have a continuously updated table of Air Yard stats. For now, only the current season is available, although if you do a search on the site you'll find posts with Air Yard stats for previous seasons.

As a review, Air Yards is a concept introduced back in 2007, the first year of this site. I always wondered why Donovan McNabb would get credit for 80 passing yards for a screen toss to Brian Westbrook caught 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Everyone is familiar with Yards After Catch (YAC), a particularly popular buzzword during the ascendancy of the west coast offense. I thought that looking at a QB's portion of passing yards that are not generated by YAC would be an interesting way to measure performance. Air Yards is simply the arithmetic complement of YAC. It's the yardage a pass travels through the air forward of the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

Reid's "Gutsy" Call Goes Unnoticed

Down six to the Steelers on the road, Michael Vick and the Eagles took the field near the start of the fourth quarter. After three short gains, the Eagles faced a 4th-and-1 from their own 30-yard line. In today's NFL, this is an easy decision for coaches: Teams punt the ball over 90% of the time. Since there was still significant time remaining in a one score game, it's safe to assume that the Eagles should have performed similarly to a score and time-agnostic situation (although obviously it had some factor in Reid's decision).

Reid was feeling some extra confidence from his tufty moustache, so he decided to go for it. I mentioned it was an easy decision for coaches to punt, but is it the right decision?

Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

• Advanced stat box scores
• Top QBs of the week
• Top RBs of the week
• Top WRs of the week
• Top TEs of the week
• Top Defenders of the week
• Advanced team stats
• Offensive player season leaders
• Defender season leaders
• Team Viz
• QB Viz
• RB Viz

Marvin Lewis Kicks Down by 4 with 3 Minutes to Play

Jason Lisk uses the Fourthdownulator to analyze Marvin Lewis' curious decision to kick down by 4 with 3 minutes to play:

Marvin Lewis cost his team dearly. About 13.5% chance of winning. That may not sound like a lot to you, but it’s huge. He almost cut it in half. You may be shocked to see that the chances of winning weren't that much better being down by 1-2 instead of 4-5, but that’s because coaches are conservative and play for field goals. When they need touchdowns, they act more optimally. Well, unless they have three minutes left.

Punting From Your Own Goal Line

Recently, we looked at how teams are too conservative with play calling when backed up against their own end zone. The main idea is that coaches want to give their team more room, and in particular, they want to give their punter more room so he does not have to stand in the back of the end zone. But, are punters actually more efficient with more room between them an the end line?

Let's look at average EPA on punts based on yards from goal. Specifically, we're going to look at inside the 3-yard line vs outside:

2012 Play-by-Play Data Posted

Play-by-play data through week 4 of the 2012 season is now available. I think this project deserves a cool name like baseball's Retrosheet. It doesn't go back to 1801 or whenever Retrosheet starts, but it's something. Suggestions welcome.

Happy crunching.

Observations: Thursdays' Rams-Cardinals Game

Thanks to a simple subscription to NFL Rewind, I bring you some observations from Thursday night's affair in St. Louis, featuring the Cardinals and the Rams in a division battle.

St. Louis

- Janoris Jenkins looked like a very capable corner, and given a year to get used to the NFL game, he could be an absolute stud. Combine Jenkins with Cortland Finnegan and the rush from Chris Long and Robert Quinn, and it's going to be very hard to pass against the Rams.