One of the common defenses of a run-heavy offense is that offenses need to make their third downs “manageable,” meaning short enough so that conversion is easier. The thinking goes that if an offense runs on either or both first and second down, it is relatively assured of shorter rather than longer distances on third down. At first look, this makes a lot of sense. After all, who wants to face third and long?
There are two problems with this argument. The first is that football is not a game of piling up first downs. The days of inching toward the goal line on 18-play drives are long gone if they ever existed at all. Football is, for the most part, a game of maximizing score differential, and the concept of Expected Points shows that NFL offenses are generally running too often on first and second down.
The second problem is that even if gaining a first down is the primary objective, running on first down is becoming a worse idea every year. The graph below shows that passing on first down leads to a conversion more often than running on first down. As usual, I limited the data to plays in ‘normal’ football situations, when the score is relatively close and time is not yet a factor at the end of either half.
With three minutes left in the game, the Cardinals got the ball on their own 15-yard line, down 16-13 to the Bills. John Skelton, in for the injured Kevin Kolb after the fourth play of the drive, leads the offense to the Buffalo 43-yard line where they stall on three straight incomplete passes. So, it's 4th-and-10 with 1:14 remaining, do you attempt the 61-yard field goal for the tie, or try to convert the 4th-and-long?
Groupthink in the NFL says attempt the field goal, but as those avid readers will certainly know, groupthink is often far too conservative. Here is the breakdown, via Brian's 4th-down calculator:
Longtime reader Jim Glass puts some famous streaks in perspective--those of Unitas, Brees, and DiMaggio. Good stuff.
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This week's article at the Post looks at how third down conversion rates can mislead coaches into poor strategic approaches.
Offenses are better off thinking of their three downs (and fourth when the situation requires) as isolated opportunities for ten-yard conversions rather than stepping stones toward what coaches call a “manageable third down.” The best third down situation isn’t third and 1 or even third and inches. It’s converting on first or second down, before ever reaching third down. Rather than seeking a short third down situation, offenses should be avoiding third downs whenever possible.
J.J. Watt shaped another game with his big mitts Monday night. The Jets put together a valiant effort in East Rutherford, falling just 23-17. Sure, it took a touchdown drive coming off a Matt Schaub interception and a 100 yard Joe McKnight kickoff return, but moral victories are moral victories.
And it could have been a real victory if not for Watt. His involvement was constant once again, as Watt was at least a part of eight successful plays for the Texans defense -- tied for the week high and a whopping 14% of the 57 plays the Jets ran in total.
Watt ran away with the week high in +WPA with 0.57, a result of his pervasive dominance to be sure but mostly coming from one swing play at the end of the first half, a tipped Mark Sanchez pass deflected right into the waiting hands of Texans cornerback Brice McCain. The Jets were 12 yards away from a tying touchdown; instead, McCain's 86-yard return set up a Texans field goal for a 10-point halftime lead.
That play alone generated 9.37 expected points for Houston and gave them a huge +30% win probability. It is the definition of a gamechanger. And this type of performance from Watt is nothing new:
Watt is one of the best defensive ends in the league across multiple categories -- he already has 10 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in just five weeks of play. But where he really stands out -- not just this season, but historically -- is with his ability to disrupt the passing game from the line of scrimmage. Watt is tied for the league lead in pass deflections with eight. Not among defensive ends or defensive linemen. Among all defensive players.
Watt's three pass deflections Monday night made him the 38th defensive lineman since 2000 (as far back as we have the data) to record at least eight in a season. His season is five games old. According to our data, Richard Seymour owns the record with 12 deflections for New England in 2003. Watt has 11 games to knock down five more passes.
And this is just one part of his wide-ranging defensive game. It brings a depth rarely seen at the position and has turned Watt into by far the most productive defensive player in the league this season. He is running away with the +EPA lead -- 49.7 to Tim Jennings's 32.7. He's making plays that add up to nearly a touchdown and a field goal every week. He's a huge part of why the Texans are the second-best team in our efficiency ratings, and at this rate, Watt just may be en route to the biggest season by a defensive player we will ever see.
This might be the first time I've seen a #1/#1. It's hard to believe the 49ers are dominating like they are, but the numbers say they're for real. I didn't have high hopes they'd come very close to last season's 13 wins. It's very difficult for a defense to repeat such a dominant season. I saw their 2011 as a combination of a truly good defense, a low-mistake offense, lots of luck, and a weak schedule--all things unlikely to repeat. It appears the defense may have improved and although the offense may not continue as the #1 squad throughout this year, it's doing a lot more than just avoid mistakes.
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