One Play Remaining before the Half on the Goal Line

IND QB Andrew Luck spiked the ball with 1 sec remaining in the 2nd quarter, bringing up a 3rd and goal from the 1-yd line. Without a moment of hesitation, acting head coach Bruce Arians ran in the FG unit for the chip-shot. The FG was good and IND took at 13-6 lead over BUF into the locker room. Was this the smart call?

Let's set aside the score and look at the general case. It's a special situation because there is no subsequent kickoff. Instead of being worth 2.7 Expected Points (EP), a FG is worth a full 3 EP. And a TD would be worth a full 7 EP instead of 6.7. The offense would take the full value of the score.

The expected value of each choice is straightforward. It's just the probability of success * the value of the score. In the case of the FG it would be:

How Much Did Jim Schwartz's Attempted Challenge Cost the Lions?

Had Schwartz not thrown the challenge flag on Forsett's run, the play would have been reviewed and certainly overturned. That would mean a 3rd and 2 for HOU on their own 27 with 6:40 or so in the 3rd quarter. Down by 10 points, that means at 0.18 Win Probability (WP) for HOU.

But because Schwartz threw the challenge flag on a play that would have been otherwise reviewed automatically, he received an unsportsmanlike penalty. The result was that the play was not reviewed by rule, and Forsett's TD stood. That gave DET a touchback up by 3, giving HOU a 0.35 WP.

That's a cost of 0.17 WP. It essentially doubled HOU's chances of winning at that point.

Year-to-Year Improvement and Decline at QB

This is intended as a companion to the recent Post article on team improvements and declines at the quarterback position. I looked at the year-to-year change in total EPA at the QB position for each team since digital records began in 2000. The table below lists the change in total EPA from the previous season. For example, Arizona improved by 47 EPA in 2001 compared to the 2000 season.All numbers are from the regular season only. The table is color coded so that the biggest improvements are in green and the biggest declines are in red. The 2012 numbers are adjusted for a 16 game season.

Washington Post: Griffin Is One of the Biggest Upgrades of the Decade

This week's article at the Post looks at the biggest upgrades and (declines) at QB of the past 11 years.

The biggest year-to-year decline belongs to the Vikings and Brett Favre. Favre’s 2009 season marked an increase in quarterback EPA of 152 points. But as Favre giveth, Favre taketh away. In 2010, the Vikings’ combination of Favre, Joe Webb and Tarvaris Jackson sunk Minnesota with a drop in EPA of 212 points. Favre’s late tears with Green Bay were also a roller coaster. His decline from 2005 and his resurgence in 2007 both rank among the biggest swings of the recent decade.

Also check out this companion post that features each team's year-by-year improvements and declines at QB.

Weekly Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 12 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I share my thoughts about the 'tired arm' theory regarding Eli Manning's recent slump.

Playoff Forecast - Week 12

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Last week belonged to CIN, who added 17 percentage points to their overall playoff chances. This was thanks to a chain of events almost all of which favored the Bengals. PIT, MIA, and IND all lost while CIN won big themselves.

PIT and MIA tied for the biggest overall drop at 10 percentage points due to the same combination of events.

On the NFC side, GB jumped up 16% while D ET dropped 12%.

Weekly Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 12 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I consider the theory that Eli Manning's mid-season swoon could be due to a "tired arm."

Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 12

Let's play a game. It's called Guess Who Won. Team H was at home hosting Team V. Team H threw for 7.5 YPA with no interceptions. Team V threw for 5.0 YPA with 2 interceptions. The adjusted YPA was 7.5 for team H and 3.2 for team V. Each team lost one fumble and had the about the same sack yards. Team H was outrun by team V, by 167 yds to 97. But both team's run SR were within 2% of each other. Also, team H had 133 return yards (not counting kickoffs) compared to only 15 for team V.

Which team won?

Extra hint: Before the end of 60 minutes, Team H scored 3 TDs compared to Team V's 2 TDs.

Extra, extra hint: Team V received a kickoff down 8 points with a 0.05 WP with 6 minutes to play, needing a TD and a 2-pt conversion just to tie. And by the way, Team H has a (statistically) above average defense so far this season.

Guess who won! If you guessed Team V, you're correct. TB beat CAR in OT.

My point is not to find a sniveling weasel-like excuse for the efficiency model's ranking of CAR as a top 5 team despite it's 2-8 record. (Ok, you got me, that's partially why I'm pointing this out.) The other reason is far more interesting.

What team does CAR remind you of in terms of GWP vs actual record? It reminds me a lot of the San Diego Chargers from a couple years back. SD had gaudy stats across the board. The efficiency model had them ranked exceptionally high week after week, but they defied the probabilities and found ways to lose games despite having better athletes and very often better bread-and-butter performance on the field than their opponents.

I am not saying the model is the true measure of a team and therefore any significant deviations are statistical flukes. I'm suggesting the opposite. There are significant factors not captured by the model, and one of those factors is Panthers head coach and former Chargers defensive coordinator Ron Rivera.

Admittedly I don't follow the Panther's from play to play and game to game, so I won't jump to conclusions.  but to those out there who do follow Carolina, please tell me why he should be kept on as the head coach.

Here are this week's rankings. As always click on the headers to sort. Team efficiency inputs can be found below.