Tom's Least Terrific Games

The NE passing game struggled Thursday night against the NYJ defense. It was a freakishly unproductive night for Tom Brady, who was obviously frustrated by his replacement-level receiving corps. But NE fans shouldn't panic. Besides being 2-0 so far, with both wins coming against division rivals, Brady has had worse games. In fact, he's had exactly 18 of them in terms of overall production.

The #1 worst game is one that's hard to forget. Baltimore's defense mauled a Welker-less NE in the 2009 playoffs. Joe Flacco needed to throw for a whopping 34 yards to win the game. That's not a typo. As a Baltimore guy, I still thought the Ravens would somehow manage to blow the game. That's just how we think.

Here's the list, including a link to each game WP graph and advanced stat boxscore.

Reddit NFL Statheads

If you're a reader of ANS, you probably already visit sites like Chase's, Aaron's, Kieth's and many of the others down there on the 'other great sites' list. But you might not be aware of the NFL Statheads sub-reddit. It's consistently featured some of the better articles from the community, including some interesting posts from readers.

Which NFL Coaches Win Significantly More than Average?

This is a guest post from Ed Feng. Ed founded The Power Rank to bring more analytics and visualization to sports, football in particular. It all started when he got inspired to apply his Ph.D. research in physics to ranking sports teams. Now he hopes to get young people interested in math through sports.

How good is an NFL coach?

How do you compare established coaches like Bill Belichick with upstarts like Jim Harbaugh?

As a reader of Advanced NFL Stats, you know the answer is not Super Bowl rings. In the playoffs, a team plays at most 4 games, a small sample size.

The best coaches will not always win the Super Bowl. Most who saw the two Super Bowl wins by the New York Giants or last year's run by Baltimore would agree.

Instead, let's look at winning percentage in the regular season to evaluate coaches. However, sample size is still an issue.

Let me share a story about why.

Field Position Proves Crucial In Week 1 Tilts

The importance of field position in football is, despite its position as one of the indomitable "little things," still an understated facet of the game. Just take a look at last year's field position data from Football Outsiders. All of the top six teams in net drive start position -- average offensive initial field position minus average defensive initial field position -- won at least 10 games. In 2012, every two extra yards of net field position added an extra win, and net field position explains a whopping 31 percent of the team-by-team variation in winning percentage.

The implication of such a result is clear: as important as pure offensive and defensive talent can be, it can be negated by starting out in poor situations. And, conversely, a team can mask issues on either side of the ball by consistently beginning drives in good position (or, of course, forcing the opponent to begin in poor position). This result was in stark display throughout Week 1, as at least seven games tilted heavily on the field position battle. A focus on three of these contests shows the multiple ways in which the field position game can tilt a contest, as well as the ways a team can influence the field position battle -- of course it's a battle -- as the game goes on.

The following charts show starting field position by drive. The symbol placement shows starting field position and the symbol type shows the result of the drive. The bars show the expected points resulting from the starting field position.

DEN 49 - 27 BAL

Saints Slip Up, Still Win

Sean Payton is back in the decision-maker chair for the Saints after his one-year sabbatical, and he is typically known as one of the more analytical coaches. The Saints pass more often than other teams, they go for it on fourth down more often, and even try the occasional surprise onside kick.

On Sunday, Payton faced a couple of fourth down decisions, testing his analytical mind. On their second drive, the Saints ran the ball on 4th-and-1 from their own 47-yard line -- a sizable gamble to the traditional football mind. Mark Ingram was stuffed and the Falcons would turn good starting field position into a field goal. This was definitely the right decision, despite the outcome (+0.84 EP going for it vs -0.30 EP with a punt).

The much bigger decision, though, came with 3:30 left in the game up three. The Saints faced a 4th-and-2 from the 4-yard line after a 5-yard completion to Lance Moore. Drew Brees lined up to attempt a 4th-down conversion but Payton ultimately decided to take a timeout to think things over. After the timeout, the Saints came out in field goal formation, made the chip shot and went up 23-17.

So, what do the numbers say?

Sport

Stochastic Football

It is possible that you do not think Quentin Tarantino is a genius. It too is possible that you have little interest in that small group of people that are Judd Apatow's friends. When a celebrity embarrasses his or herself, it is possible you do not want to scold that person, joke about that person or even joke about others joking about that person. It is possible even that you didn't know it happened when it happened, and upon knowing, wonder why you should give a damn.

Maybe you have no opinion about zombies, don't know the song of the summer and care little about who is cast as Batman. Maybe to you, kindly reader, pop culture is a lamprey that attaches itself whenever you step into a supermarket or gas station or bodega. Maybe you'd rather hate than capitulate to a culture that is tenaciously mediocre; maybe to you ironic detachment seems a cure worse than the disease.

No one thinks pop musicians are the most talented or creative people making or performing music, few think actors are even actors but professional personas cultivating a brand, and that farrago of acting, music, costuming, … … … writing we call mainstream cinema, is impervious to ideas that cannot be projected to gross in the millions. James Cameron didn't plumb the depths of his soul to make Avatar—his grand achievement was developing a visual effect that could not be reproduced at home. 

This emphasis on novelty, accessibility and mass appeal is sometimes, patronizingly, called populism, and sometimes, cynically, called seeking the lowest common denominator, but all it is is simple economics. Since the Industrial Revolution the most important three words of any business plan are "cheap" and "good enough." Someone realized, quite correctly, that small pleasantries over a hum of numbness was and is more appealing to the risk-adverse mind than “the bright face of danger.” A vanishing few people seem to mind hopping from fad to fad, style to style, living your youth doing what you are told is hip, living your old age remembering your life with a mixture of embarrassment and nostalgia.

But it is possible, I think, I hope, it is possible that some have a desperate irrepressible need for excellence. To us …

Welcome Back, Football

We're gearing up for the 2013 season. Soon I'll have an announcement about our new contributors, and there will be some cool new features this year.

In the meantime ANS kicks off the season with a partnership with NBC Sports. The internet simulcast of each Sunday Night Football game (and Thursday night specials, like tonight) will include a small version of the ANS win probability graph. The SNF simulcasts are already great, and this will add an analytic dimension for the masses. I've regularly watched the simulcasts over past couple years because viewers can select which camera to view the game. I'm a fan of the overhead cable camera view, which lets me see the stunts, blocking, coverages, and routes from the same angle you'd see playing Madden.

 

Call for Writers: Update

Thanks to everyone who responded to the call for writers. Please be assured that all responses have been collected and will get a thorough look. I've combed through the spam filter so nothing gets lost. I'm over a week behind where I wanted to be in terms of reviewing them, but I'll get there. I intend to contact everyone over the next two weeks to finalize things.