Season Win Projections Week 14

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. As before, projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP). The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here. Precise playoff predictions based on individual game probabilities can be found at NFL Forecast.

Team	Rank	Proj GWP	Fut. Opp	Current	Proj W
AFC E
NE	1	0.92	0.42	13	15.7
BUF	16	0.48	0.52	7	8.4
NYJ	19	0.36	0.59	3	4.1
MIA	28	0.24	0.56	0	0.7
AFC N
PIT	8	0.71	0.45	9	11.1
CLE	17	0.61	0.36	8	9.8
CIN	20	0.64	0.30	5	6.9
BAL	22	0.32	0.55	4	5.0
AFC S
IND	2	0.90	0.42	11	13.7
JAX	5	0.75	0.46	9	11.2
TEN	13	0.51	0.55	7	8.5
HOU	18	0.25	0.72	6	6.7
AFC W
SD	9	0.75	0.38	8	10.2
DEN	12	0.51	0.56	6	7.5
KC	25	0.38	0.44	4	5.1
OAK	30	0.11	0.74	4	4.3
Team	Rank	Proj GWP	Fut. Opp	Current	Proj W
NFC E
DAL	3	0.84	0.47	12	14.5
NYG	14	0.39	0.64	9	10.2
WAS	15	0.37	0.64	6	7.1
PHI	10	0.50	0.58	5	6.5
NFC N
GB	6	0.86	0.28	11	13.6
MIN	11	0.63	0.44	7	8.9
DET	26	0.27	0.55	6	6.8
CHI	31	0.20	0.56	5	5.6
NFC S
TB	4	0.90	0.26	8	10.7
NO	21	0.52	0.40	6	7.6
CAR	27	0.13	0.76	5	5.4
ATL	24	0.25	0.60	3	3.8
NFC W
SEA	7	0.81	0.34	9	11.4
ARI	23	0.52	0.35	6	7.6
STL	29	0.22	0.58	3	3.7
SF	32	0.12	0.56	3	3.4

The Bills, Redskins, and Unsportsmanlike Conduct

On December 2^nd, Joe Gibbs may have cost his team a playoff spot. His 15 yd unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for consecutive time outs to ice Buffalo kicker Ryan Lindell backfired. It gave Lindell a 36 yd FG attempt instead of a 51 yd attempt to win the game as time expired. The cost of Gibbs’ mistake is only now becoming clear as the playoffs picture comes into focus.

Lindell is a decent kicker and has kicked 5 out of 7 lifetime FGs from beyond 50 yds. But 7 attempts is not terribly significant statistically. Chances are he’s not too different than most starting NFL kickers. Below is a graph of NFL-wide FG probability of success vs. attempt distance. A best-fit equation yields how that 15 yd penalty changed Lindell’s chance to win the game with only seconds remaining.


Those 15 yards changed the FG probability from 0.58 to 0.88, a difference of 0.30. And although Lindell proved (as Gibbs called the first timeout) that he had the leg to make the longer kick, that is not an indication that Lindell is immune from the laws of probability.

Today the Redskins find themselves at 6-7, one game back in the race for the last wildcard spot in the NFC. Had Lindell missed from 51 yds, the Redskins would have won and they’d be tied with Minnesota at 7-6, who they will face in week 16.

The Bills, on the other hand, are now at 7-6 partially thanks to their win over Washington. They are now one game behind Cleveland for the 2nd wildcard spot in the AFC with about a 20% chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

What a difference 15 yards and one kick can make /could have made.

Playoff Probabilities

Updated playoff probabilities based on updated Week 14 data are now available at NFL-Forecast.com.

Game Predictions Week 15

Game probabilities for week 15 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

Vprob	Vistor	Home	Hprob
0.52	DEN	HOU	0.48
0.76	CIN	SF	0.24
0.36	ARI	NO	0.64
0.10	ATL	TB	0.90
0.50	BAL	MIA	0.50
0.45	BUF	CLE	0.55
0.80	GB	STL	0.20
0.47	JAX	PIT	0.53
0.07	NYJ	NE	0.93
0.77	SEA	CAR	0.23
0.65	TEN	KC	0.35
0.93	IND	OAK	0.07
0.15	DET	SD	0.85
0.17	PHI	DAL	0.83
0.40	WAS	NYG	0.60
0.15	CHI	MIN	0.85

Week 14 Efficiency Rankings

NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 14. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

Rank	Team	Last Wk	GWP	Opp GWP	O Rank	D Rank
1	NE	1	0.89	0.55	1	5
2	IND	3	0.87	0.54	4	1
3	DAL	2	0.82	0.49	2	6
4	TB	4	0.76	0.48	6	7
5	JAX	6	0.72	0.55	3	13
6	GB	7	0.70	0.48	5	12
7	SEA	8	0.68	0.40	11	8
8	PIT	5	0.67	0.46	14	3
9	SD	9	0.64	0.52	15	4
10	PHI	10	0.58	0.54	8	21
11	MIN	11	0.57	0.45	10	15
12	DEN	15	0.56	0.49	7	23
13	TEN	14	0.55	0.53	24	2
14	NYG	12	0.52	0.49	19	10
15	WAS	13	0.51	0.54	20	9
16	BUF	17	0.50	0.56	16	14
17	CLE	16	0.47	0.47	9	29
18	HOU	18	0.46	0.50	17	26
19	NYJ	19	0.44	0.53	21	22
20	CIN	20	0.43	0.51	12	30
21	NO	24	0.41	0.50	13	32
22	BAL	21	0.36	0.51	25	16
23	ARI	22	0.36	0.44	22	19
24	ATL	25	0.34	0.49	18	28
25	KC	23	0.32	0.53	31	11
26	DET	30	0.31	0.52	23	18
27	CAR	27	0.31	0.49	30	17
28	MIA	26	0.29	0.54	27	25
29	STL	28	0.28	0.46	29	20
30	OAK	29	0.26	0.46	26	27
31	CHI	31	0.25	0.52	28	31
32	SF	32	0.14	0.45	32	24

Team Efficiency Stats

I've received a few requests to see the data used by the efficiency model, so here it is a table of all 32 teams. The NFL average is listed at the bottom. O Pass, D Run, etc. are in "yards per attempt." Turnover rates are also per attempt--interceptions per pass attempt and fumbles per play. Pen rate is penalty yards per play for both offense and defense.

The weights of each variable can be found in the post here.

Team	O Pass	O Run	O Int	O Fum	D Pass	D Run	D Int	Pen Rate
ARI	6.54	3.61	0.038	0.037	5.77	3.95	0.032	0.46
ATL	5.19	3.88	0.026	0.022	6.48	4.25	0.038	0.47
BAL	5.10	4.02	0.023	0.030	6.56	2.83	0.035	0.32
BUF	5.86	3.81	0.033	0.018	6.68	4.22	0.029	0.45
CAR	5.10	4.07	0.036	0.029	6.14	3.62	0.031	0.41
CHI	5.49	3.23	0.039	0.033	6.46	4.42	0.023	0.37
CIN	6.59	3.52	0.032	0.021	6.94	4.23	0.036	0.47
CLE	6.88	4.07	0.034	0.027	6.46	4.63	0.028	0.43
DAL	8.13	4.35	0.037	0.015	5.48	3.79	0.040	0.32
DEN	6.84	4.41	0.034	0.034	6.65	4.61	0.035	0.36
DET	6.10	3.96	0.034	0.049	6.49	3.93	0.035	0.55
GB	7.27	3.79	0.021	0.027	6.07	3.97	0.032	0.34
HOU	7.00	3.66	0.039	0.037	6.33	4.50	0.028	0.21
IND	7.04	3.97	0.032	0.014	5.12	4.00	0.043	0.30
JAX	6.54	4.33	0.018	0.018	6.64	3.96	0.035	0.33
KC	5.30	3.32	0.040	0.025	5.96	4.16	0.035	0.38
MIA	5.14	4.24	0.036	0.026	6.85	4.29	0.034	0.37
MIN	5.84	5.63	0.029	0.027	6.36	2.99	0.028	0.37
NE	8.04	4.09	0.014	0.012	5.73	4.13	0.045	0.38
NO	6.32	3.53	0.031	0.027	7.25	3.89	0.026	0.27
NYG	5.64	4.40	0.041	0.021	5.70	3.81	0.030	0.35
NYJ	5.48	3.71	0.038	0.014	6.80	4.25	0.034	0.24
OAK	5.62	4.24	0.042	0.038	6.47	4.81	0.046	0.41
PHI	6.11	4.53	0.033	0.015	6.15	3.75	0.018	0.33
PIT	6.44	4.10	0.037	0.020	4.39	3.62	0.021	0.34
SD	6.39	4.08	0.037	0.021	5.92	4.15	0.048	0.40
SF	3.99	4.21	0.038	0.043	6.16	3.78	0.025	0.36
SS	6.29	3.69	0.023	0.016	5.45	4.01	0.034	0.19
STL	5.27	3.55	0.046	0.023	6.17	4.14	0.030	0.38
TB	6.68	4.30	0.014	0.017	5.35	3.73	0.031	0.32
TEN	5.69	4.06	0.039	0.031	5.47	3.97	0.036	0.42
WAS	5.93	3.91	0.027	0.038	5.71	3.94	0.021	0.37
Avg	6.12	4.01	0.032	0.026	6.13	4.01	0.033	0.37

Another Plug for NFL Forecast

One cool feature of the web-based playoff prediction engine found at NFL-Forecast.com is the "predicted wins" tab. Each teams' final win total is plotted as a probability distribution according to the game probabilities calculated here at NFL Stats. The neat part to me is the "probability of making the playoffs with x wins." It gives the probability of making the playoffs for each win total.

For example, Cleveland's playoff probabilities for each win total look like this:

8 wins--5%
9 wins--30%
10 wins--80%
11 wins--100%

It takes a minute or two to play with the app to realize how neat it really is. You can move the slider bars for any game, setting your own game probabilities--you're not stuck with mine. (To account for today's results, I moved the sliders to 100% for each winner.) Then click on Forecast/Forecast Remainder of Season. You can then click on the tabs at the bottom of the app to see playoff probabilities, expected win totals, division standings, and (for the MIA, SF, STL, and ATL fans out there) the 2008 draft order probabilities.

If you're a fan of a team on the bubble, you can move the sliders to see your team's playoff odds for "what if" scenarios. Let's say the Redskins win out--they'd have a 97% chance for a playoff spot. (Three straight wins would include a victory over MIN in week 16, and determine the tie-breaker. )

And if Detroit wins out, they'd have a 53% chance of making the playoffs.

Pretty cool.

Browns vs. Titans for the AFC Wildcard

CLE and TEN are both 7-5 with 4 games remaining. With JAX currently playing well and sitting at 8-4, it looks like the final wildcard spot will go to either the Browns or Titans. BUF, at 6-6, still has an outside chance, but the clear favorite for the wildcard right now is CLE. NFL Forecast gives CLE about a 50/50 shot at the wildcard and TEN about a 33% chance.

CLE and TEN are mirror images of one another. CLE has one of the top ranked offenses but one of the worst defenses, while TEN has a very strong defense but weak offense. All things considered, and accounting for opponent strength, TEN ranks 14th in the league and CLE ranks 16th. Here is how each team's stats break down:

Team	O Pass	O Run	O Int Rate	O Fum	D Pass	D Run	D Int Rate	Pen Rate
CLE	6.88	4.07	0.034	0.027	6.46	4.63	0.028	0.43
TEN	5.69	4.06	0.039	0.031	5.47	3.97	0.036	0.42
NFL Avg	6.12	4.01	0.032	0.026	6.13	4.01	0.033	0.37

But the symmetry stops there. CLE has a far easier schedule than TEN for the final four weeks, and that is why they are the favorites for the wildcard spot despite being a very average team. Here is how the rest of CLE's schedule shapes up:

Opponent	Win Prob.
at NYJ	0.43
BUF	0.59
at Cin	0.44
SF	0.87

TEN's schedule is far tougher.

Opponent	Win Prob.
SD	0.45
at KC	0.54
NYJ	0.63
at IND	0.12

The difference in the two teams' schedules is mostly due to their final opponents. CLE gets SF at home while TEN visits IND. The biggest uncertainty is how the Colts will play in week 17. If they have locked up the #2 seed they may rest their starters allowing TEN to have a much better chance of winning.

BUF still has a shot, especially if they can beat CLE (at CLE) next week. The Bills almost certainly need to go at least 3-1 in the last four weeks with this schedule:

Opponent	Win Prob.
MIA	0.69
at CLE	0.41
NYG	0.53
at PHI	0.30

It will likely go down to the final week of the season. Unfortunately, the winner earns the right to a road game at (probably) SD or PIT for the right to visit NE.