Week 13 Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.

1 ATL40.790.54119
2 NYG60.760.4928
3 CAR30.750.54106
4 PHI70.740.5295
5 SD10.730.56315
6 PIT80.730.50211
7 WAS20.730.5279
8 TEN110.700.41132
9 NO80.700.55417
10 MIA90.660.46523
11 ARI100.650.55618
12 TB130.630.52204
13 DAL140.620.481210
14 BAL180.610.48183
15 IND150.580.521114
16 CHI120.580.501911
17 DEN190.530.49826
18 GB200.520.551413
19 NYJ160.510.462516
20 NE170.500.501724
21 MIN210.500.51247
22 BUF220.440.402621
23 HOU230.420.461529
24 JAX240.320.471625
25 OAK260.290.563012
26 SEA250.280.472920
27 CLE280.260.552328
28 KC29

29 SF270.230.532727
30 CIN300.190.593222
31 STL31

32 DET320.090.573132

To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.


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5 Responses to “Week 13 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I love the site - just got on it - and need to go back to get upto speed on all the analysis. Few questions:
    (a) PHI, SD always score well "sabermetrically" but seem to underperform record (PHI 8-8 last year, 50% this year). Any way to include a "toughness" or "it" factor. Seems like IND always outperforms it "sabermetric" prediction b/c ability to "win" close ones.
    (b) How many readers of this site?
    (c) Why don't you do more ATS analysis? Your % probability to win a game is effective a money line which corresponds to spreads - any reason you are averse to the gambling side of the sport?
    * But AWESEOME AWESOME site overall!!!

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Thanks. Glad you like it.

    a-Difficult to answer. There's a lot that goes into the "it." There's a lot my efficiency system doesn't measure--special teams, luck, game-day coaching decisions. (These are things that are non-predictive or impossible to measure.) Last couple years I did a "luckiest" teams list every couple weeks that ranked teams according to the difference between their expected wins and actual wins. San Diego would be the unluckiest and Tennessee would be the luckiest right now.

    My personal opinion is that it's mostly luck. The season is so short. I think all these guys are tough and all the coaches are pretty smart. If they weren't, it's unlikely they'd be in the NFL. Some players or even teams can flake out sometimes, but they flake out because they're bad. They're not bad because they flake out.

    (By the way, the Pats, not the Colts, are the team that really blow the curve. See my article "Belichick Cheating Evidence?"

    b-The site averages over 10,000 readers per week, about 25,000 clicks. About half are regular readers, and half are just looking for something specific to win an argument with.

    c-I'm just a fan, and I lack the interest in gambling. It's fun to see if I can beat 'the system' sometimes, but it's enough fun for me to analyze things straight-up.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Gotcha, thanks for response. For the "it" factor, couldn't it be a qualitative factor you create (ie rank the teams 1-32 on "it" factor) - or some type of momentum based win strategy (4*wins in last 5 games + 2*wins in last 15 games) - ie teams that consistenly "win" probably have some "it" in them and that way a team like SD would fall a little as it would have a lower (4*wins in last 5 games + 2*wins in last 15 games) than IND even though it has higher efficiency points. Just a thought.

  4. Anonymous says:

    As a follow-up I noticed NYG was a 33% chance to win last week vs WAS. A momentum win factor would have helped change those %s - I realize that's what the numbers spit out - but intuitively it doesn't seem like NYG is only 33% chance to win (since the 38-35 loss to NE, they've beat TB, DAL, GB, NE, WAS, PHI, PIT, BAL, AZ, DAL and even WAS already - and they had just 1 hiccup game vs CLE). To me, that has to count for something?

  5. Dave Peer says:

    Atlanta had a 0.26 GWP after week three last year. Quite a turnaround for the dirty birds. You'd have to check (if you cared, and I'd understand if you didn't, as it's trivia, after all) if any team has accomplished a >=0.50 GWP improvement/decline in less time.

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