Week 14 Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.








































RANKTEAMLAST WKGWPOpp GWPO RANKD RANK
1 ATL10.760.55120
2 PHI30.760.5573
3 PIT60.750.52211
4 NYG20.740.5239
5 CAR50.740.54106
6 SD40.720.52213
7 TEN80.700.41142
8 WAS70.690.54811
9 NO90.670.56417
10 BAL130.650.51194
11 MIA100.640.45622
12 TB120.640.54185
13 IND150.630.501114
14 ARI110.620.51515
15 DAL140.610.51158
16 CHI160.610.49207
17 GB190.520.551321
18 DEN170.500.46927
19 NE200.470.481624
20 MIN210.460.492610
21 NYJ180.440.442418
22 HOU230.410.481229
23 BUF220.400.422719
24 JAX240.360.481726
25 SEA260.320.482916
26 SF290.320.532525
27 OAK250.270.563212
28 CLE270.270.562328
29 KC280.270.522230
30 CIN300.240.593123
31 STL310.150.562831
32 DET320.120.563032




To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.







































TEAMOPASSORUNOINTRATEOFUMRATEDPASSDRUNDINTRATEPENRATE
ARI7.43.30.0240.0246.33.80.0260.37
ATL7.54.20.0190.0126.24.90.0200.30
BAL6.13.80.0280.0255.13.40.0530.42
BUF6.24.10.0310.0336.14.00.0170.29
CAR6.74.80.0320.0165.74.00.0220.33
CHI5.74.00.0240.0165.73.50.0380.32
CIN4.13.40.0340.0296.74.00.0190.30
CLE5.03.90.0290.0257.14.50.0510.34
DAL6.94.20.0390.0295.43.90.0140.45
DEN7.34.50.0280.0206.74.90.0120.35
DET5.23.70.0370.0407.75.00.0120.38
GB6.54.10.0250.0236.14.80.0430.51
HOU7.34.40.0430.0287.04.60.0290.29
IND6.43.40.0250.0105.94.20.0360.32
JAX5.64.10.0230.0186.74.20.0320.42
KC5.24.80.0280.0227.45.00.0270.31
MIA7.14.10.0150.0176.33.90.0280.36
MIN5.84.40.0430.0246.13.20.0260.39
NE5.94.30.0220.0196.74.10.0310.25
NO7.83.80.0300.0216.54.10.0250.39
NYG6.44.90.0200.0185.43.90.0370.45
NYJ5.94.70.0370.0256.43.50.0230.28
OAK4.74.20.0260.0376.44.50.0350.46
PHI6.24.00.0260.0155.33.50.0280.36
PIT5.93.60.0300.0214.43.20.0350.42
SD7.73.80.0260.0156.23.90.0200.36
SF6.23.90.0380.0466.23.80.0240.41
SEA4.84.40.0340.0167.04.00.0130.28
STL5.13.80.0430.0267.64.70.0190.39
TB6.04.00.0200.0225.64.30.0480.38
TEN6.34.40.0210.0184.83.70.0390.44
WAS5.74.60.0140.0185.73.80.0300.34
Avg6.24.10.0290.0236.24.10.0290.37

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2 Responses to “Week 14 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Anonymous says:

    you have way too much time on your hands. Do you need a job?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I'm independently wealthy.

    Besides, what's the bigger waste of time--me doing all this, or you reading about me doing it and leaving a comment at 1:14 AM on a Sunday morning?

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