Luckiest NFL Teams Week 13

Based on opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP), the number of expected wins can be estimated for each team. Teams that have won more games than expected can be considered lucky, while teams with fewer wins than expected can be considered unlucky.

The list of NFL teams sorted from luckiest (positive numbers) to unluckiest is posted below. We would expect most teams to be within +/- 1.0 wins. So teams outside that margin can be deemed significantly lucky or unlucky.





































RankTeamGWPWinsExp WinsLuck
1DET0.2763.32.7
2CHI0.2553.02.0
3GB0.67108.02.0
4NYG0.5286.31.7
5CLE0.4775.61.4
6NE0.891210.61.4
7ARI0.4064.81.2
8CAR0.3353.91.1
9SF0.1631.91.1
10TEN0.5176.10.9
11PIT0.6998.30.7
12DAL0.861110.30.7
13OAK0.2843.30.7
14NO0.3754.40.6
15BUF0.4665.60.4
16SEA0.6687.90.1
17IND0.841010.1-0.1
18JAX0.6888.1-0.1
19STL0.2933.5-0.5
20HOU0.4655.5-0.5
21KC0.3844.6-0.6
22DEN0.4755.7-0.7
23SD0.6477.7-0.7
24MIN0.5766.8-0.8
25WAS0.5156.1-1.1
26BAL0.4345.1-1.1
27TB0.7789.2-1.2
28ATL0.3634.3-1.3
29CIN0.4545.3-1.3
30PHI0.5957.1-2.1
31NYJ0.4535.5-2.5
32MIA0.3504.2-4.2

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2 Responses to “Luckiest NFL Teams Week 13”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Sad thing is once MIA completes their 0-16 season, no one will realize how unlucky they were at times this season and only remember the 0-16 part. Same with NE but opposite end. NE was very fortunate at times (though still great).

    But such is the NFL. There is still a little luck involved.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I completely agree. Not to mention they were robbed of a home game.

    NE was luckiest of all against Baltimore, and ironically MIA might have their best shot at a win this Sunday at home against the Ravens.

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