Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at Sunday Giants-Vikings match-up.
Weekly Game Probabilities
published on 12/09/2010
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Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at Sunday Giants-Vikings match-up.
In your post, you mentioned that teams who are losing may find themselves pressured to throw high-risk passes, thus increasing their interception rate. It seems like we (you) have the data to assess the relationship between a team's WPA at the beginning of a passing play and the probability that that play ends in an interception.
Looking forward to your coverage on the Giants/Vikings game
- Tommy Barnett
http://www.allgiants.com
Presumably the Vikings have now lost HFA so Giants are much more significant favourites now?
(Yes I'm British so I do spell 'favourite' with a 'u'!)
I have a question about a situation that just came up in the Texans Ravens game. To recap, Texans were down 15 and scored a touchdown with just over 6 minutes left. Now, they chose to kick the extra point to cut the lead to 8. Why wouldn't they go for two? I couldn't figure out the reason for the extra point. I remember this situation coming up in an earlier game and announcers kept saying they had to keep it a one possession game.
As I see it, if you assume that the percentage chance of converting a 2-point conversion is the same at any point in the game, then you would want to go for two after the first score. That way, if you make the 2-pt conversion, you know for sure that you only need a TD and extra point. However, if you miss the XP, then you know that it is still a 2-possession game.
So, assuming that whether or not you make the 2-pt conversion won't be affected by when you go for it, wouldn't you want that extra information of whether or not you make it earlier? I'd rather know I need an extra score with 6 minutes left then with 30 seconds or less left. The earlier I know, the better I could gameplan.
I feel like I must be missing some reason to kick the X-PT there. I'm thinking it may have to do with the possibility of the leading team scoring again before the end of the game, but I dunno. Any insight would be great.
Late to the game on this blog, however, as I had inquired, at the time, on the Fifth Down Blog- What was the Giant's WP vs. the Vikings on a neutral field?
Can this still be determined given we have a few more weeks worth of 2010 data?
Thank you.
Jeremy