Game probabilities for week 12 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I consider the theory that Eli Manning's mid-season swoon could be due to a "tired arm."
Weekly Game Probabilities
published on 11/21/2012
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tired arm theory largely proposed by the tired brain crowd
CAR (2-8) to beat PHI (3-7)? Well, these predictions don't match my preconceptions about what's going to happen. Why don't you change your model?
My system says Carolina will beat Philly by 4 pts..so I agree on this single game this week.
However,
I crunched this site's win probability predictions for weeks 4 through today...For any team with a win probability of 0.51 or greater the record is 68 wins and 47 wins or about 59.1%.
You guys in the pick-em leagues can achieve a better win ratio by simply picking the vegas favorite on every game every week...65% win ratio. Weight your confidence pts by the vegas pt spread (e.g. 1 confidence pt for a 1 pt favorite, 16 confidence pts for a 12 pt favorite) and you will get 74% of all pts, using the last 4 seasons as a data set.
Using picks for the plurality of yahoo users playing pro football pickem the record for all 12 weeks is 107-55 or 66%.
Using ESPN Accuscore free advisor the record was 103-56 or 64.7%
Has this Weekly Win Probability performed at a 59% rate in 2011,2010,2009, and 2008?