As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 NYJ | 0 | 64 | 32 | 4 |
 MIA | 0 | 16 | 43 | 41 |
 BUF | 0 | 20 | 25 | 55 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 BAL | 88 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
 CIN | 5 | 36 | 55 | 3 |
 PIT | 7 | 51 | 36 | 6 |
 CLE | 0 | 1 | 8 | 91 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 HOU | 93 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 IND | 7 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
 TEN | 0 | 0 | 95 | 5 |
 JAC | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 DEN | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 SD | 0 | 97 | 3 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 3 | 76 | 21 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 21 | 79 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NYG | 49 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
 WAS | 31 | 35 | 33 | 1 |
 DAL | 21 | 29 | 50 | 0 |
 PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 99 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 GB | 86 | 11 | 3 | 0 |
 CHI | 12 | 70 | 19 | 0 |
 MIN | 2 | 19 | 78 | 0 |
 DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ATL | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TB | 0 | 61 | 29 | 10 |
 NO | 0 | 29 | 33 | 38 |
 CAR | 0 | 10 | 38 | 52 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SF | 87 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
 SEA | 12 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
 STL | 0 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
 ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| HOU | 70 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 100 |
| NE | 21 | 30 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| DEN | 8 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| IND | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 78 | 13 | 98 |
| BAL | 0 | 6 | 15 | 67 | 2 | 10 | 100 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 54 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 40 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| ATL | 81 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| SF | 12 | 54 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 100 |
| GB | 6 | 18 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 95 |
| NYG | 1 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 14 | 75 |
| SEA | 0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 50 | 20 | 82 |
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 59 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 4 | 12 | 47 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 26 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I don't think those numbers have been updated for this week.
How do you decide the ordering? Why are the Rams above the Buccaneers and the Bengals above the Steelers
Yeah these are definitely old. Baltimore should be 100% (unless the sim has ties happen, which would be impressive). While they haven't officially clinched the only way they don't make the playoffs would to have the following happen:
1. Baltimore goes 0-3
2. Indy does not go 0-3.
3. Pittsburgh and Cincy both finish 2-0-1 with a tie against each other.
This would put Baltimore down to 3rd in their division and miss out of the final spot. Assuming the Cincy/Pitt game doesn't end in a tie, Baltimore can finish no worse than 2nd in their division and the only other team in the AFC that could tie them for the final spot would be the Jets, who Baltimore has the tiebreaker over as they have clinched a better conference record.
As previously mentioned, the figures are rounded to whole numbers. If you visit Chris's site he has the values to the 4th decimal. Didn't break out my calculator, but I'm willing to bet it adds up to 99.9 percent or higher
Yep, these numbers are one week old.
I just posted this weeks' numbers. I ran the sims very late on Tuesday, then forgot to post the numbers on my blog. Sorry.
Saints can still get in with 8-8 even after today's games. How are they 0%? Is it like 0.4 and it's rounded to zero?
Probably...check nfl-forecast.com for more precision.