Playoff Projections - Week 15 *Updated*

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.




AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE100000
NYJ064324
MIA0164341
BUF0202555
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL881200
CIN536553
PIT751366
CLE01891
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU93700
IND79300
TEN00955
JAC00595
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN100000
SD09730
OAK037621
KC002179
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG4936160
WAS3135331
DAL2129500
PHI00199
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
GB861130
CHI1270190
MIN219780
DET000100
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL100000
TB0612910
NO0293338
CAR0103852
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF871200
SEA1277100
STL010890
ARI000100


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU70185070100
NE2130381100100
DEN84339900100
IND1330781398
BAL061567210100
PIT000764154
CIN000552940
NYJ0000145
MIA0000011
SD0000011
BUF0000011
CLE0000011
JAC0000000
TEN0000000
KC0000000
OAK0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL81135200100
SF1254192102100
GB61843193695
NYG151725121475
SEA0841502082
CHI0273173059
WAS0042741247
DAL001191426
MIN0012158
STL0000358
TB0000011
NO0000000
PHI0000000
DET0000000
CAR0000000
ARI0000000

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8 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 15 *Updated*”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I don't think those numbers have been updated for this week.

  2. Anonymous says:

    How do you decide the ordering? Why are the Rams above the Buccaneers and the Bengals above the Steelers

  3. Anonymous says:

    Yeah these are definitely old. Baltimore should be 100% (unless the sim has ties happen, which would be impressive). While they haven't officially clinched the only way they don't make the playoffs would to have the following happen:

    1. Baltimore goes 0-3
    2. Indy does not go 0-3.
    3. Pittsburgh and Cincy both finish 2-0-1 with a tie against each other.

    This would put Baltimore down to 3rd in their division and miss out of the final spot. Assuming the Cincy/Pitt game doesn't end in a tie, Baltimore can finish no worse than 2nd in their division and the only other team in the AFC that could tie them for the final spot would be the Jets, who Baltimore has the tiebreaker over as they have clinched a better conference record.

  4. TMK says:

    As previously mentioned, the figures are rounded to whole numbers. If you visit Chris's site he has the values to the 4th decimal. Didn't break out my calculator, but I'm willing to bet it adds up to 99.9 percent or higher

  5. Anonymous says:

    Yep, these numbers are one week old.

  6. Chris says:

    I just posted this weeks' numbers. I ran the sims very late on Tuesday, then forgot to post the numbers on my blog. Sorry.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Saints can still get in with 8-8 even after today's games. How are they 0%? Is it like 0.4 and it's rounded to zero?

  8. Brian Burke says:

    Probably...check nfl-forecast.com for more precision.

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