Washington Post: Preseason Stats Aren't Predictive for Rookie QBs

In all the excitement of the new season I forgot to make a post linking to last week's article on how preseason statistics for rookie starting QBs are not predictive of first year performance.

Peyton Manning Measures Up In Broncos Debut

There was an unfamiliar air of uncertainty surrounding Peyton Manning's debut as a Denver Bronco on Sunday night. From 1999 through 2010, Manning defined the quarterback position, throwing for over 50,000 yards with an adjusted net yards per passing attempt (per Pro-Football-Reference) of 7.24. Only Philip Rivers's 7.26 mark bests Manning, and Rivers did it in 112 fewer starts and with a higher percentage of his play coming in the recent League of the Quarterback.

For the first time since Manning opened 2010 with the Colts, we really just didn't know what to expect. Sure, "he's Peyton Manning," but multiple neck surgeries have the potential to derail any sports career, uch less one as fragile as NFL quarterback. There was talk he had become a reverse Zoolander -- instead of losing his ability to turn left, rumors mounted that Manning had lost the ability to throw to his right.

In that case, Sunday night's performance against the Steelers was Manning's Magnum.

Game Changers: Chandler Jones' Forced Fumble

The Situation

Patriots at Titans, Week 1
2nd Quarter, 11:16 left
Titans' ball, 3rd and 13 from their own 7

Kickers Are Getting Better and Better

This past Sunday we saw the all time FG distance record tied for the second time in a year. And it wasn't indoors or even in Denver. I've previously written about how FG accuracy has improved even as attempt distances have increased., but even in the last few years kicking accuracy at long distances has improved significantly. This trend shows no sign of slowing, and it has significant implications for the sport.

In an analysis of the previous overtime format, I noted the following:

In 1974, the league FG% was 60.6%. This year, it was 84.5%. And that even masks how much kickers have truly improved. In 1974, 36% of all FG attempts were from 40 yards or beyond. In 2008, the figure was 41%. These days, teams aren’t looking to get inside the 25 for a field goal attempt, they’re just hoping to get inside the 40. Getting a quick score in overtime has become a far easier proposition. Field goals have gradually warped NFL football. In 1974, there were 3.0 FG attempts each game compared to 3.9 in 2008, a 30% increase.

Saints Shocked: 4th Down Decision

RGIII was the only rookie quarterback to win on Sunday, when his Redskins took down the Saints 40-32. Brees was pressured heavily all game and while it's extremely difficult to quantify the value of coaching, people are wondering what kind of effect the loss of Sean Payton will mean.

One immediate impact is strategic decision-making. Sean Payton is known for his risky decisions. And by that, I mean he is known for those decisions that are publicly perceived as "risky," even if they are the statistically correct decision. Last year, the Saints were the No. 8 team in terms of win probability forfeited on 4th down (meaning they were in the top quarter of the league in 4th-down decision-making). So, what did we learn on Sunday?

With just about 2:00 to play in the 3rd quarter, down 30-14 already, the Saints were faced with a 4th-and-goal from the 3-yard line. Below you can see the results from the 4th-Down Calculator:

Game Changers: Boley Intercepts Romo

The Situation
    •   Cowboys at Giants, Week 1
    •   2nd Quarter, 10:46 left
    •   Cowboys' ball, 3rd and 8 from their own 40

Expect Even More Passing Yards, and Why It Matters

Remember the passing explosion to start the NFL season last year? Get ready for even more. 2011 was not a one-year blip but instead was part of an accelerating trend toward more potent and more frequent passing. This isn't statistical trivia either, as this trend has dramatic implications for how the game should be played.

Take a look at Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (courtesy of PFR), which with just one number incorporates passing efficiency, interceptions, and sacks. Since the dawn of the modern passing era, passing has become steadily more lucrative. But since 2004, the rate of increase in average ANY/A has accelerated. The 2011 season featured the most successful passing game ever.

For context, compare the graph above with the next one. This shows the same trend but for rushing yards per carry. There is a very shallow increasing trend since a trough in the mid 1990s, but it pales in comparison. The jump in net passing last year alone is larger than the increase in rushing over the entire period. (I've kept the scales of both graphs identical for a pure comparison.)

Passing vs Rushing On Your Own Goal Line

It's a common practice in the NFL that when your team is backed up against your own goal line, you run the ball to "give some breathing room." Often you'll see either a QB sneak or a handoff right up the middle. In fact, since 2000, teams have run the ball on 1st down from inside their own 3-yard line on 72.4% of all occasions.

We know that passing is the much more efficient option in today's NFL, so should teams actually be running the ball, using up one of their precious downs? A quarterback still has around 10 yards to work with when backed up against his own goal line, whereas a running back needs to ensure positive yardage -- plus he starts 5-7 yards behind the line-of-scrimmage on most occasions.

We're going to look at the track record in the league on passing and rushing plays using both EPA per play and safety percentage (% of plays on which a safety was recorded).