As I'm testing out my new win probability toy, there are lots of fun things to do. Here is a timeline of Sunday night's game between the Steelers and Jaguars. The Steelers got out of town with the W, but late in the 4th quarter it was Jacksonville's game to lose. The wild swings in win probability made for a fun game to watch. Check in tonight for the MIN-NO game's WP graph to be updated live.
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PIT-JAX in Win Probabilities
By
Brian Burke
published on 10/06/2008
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One mistake. The first JAX 4th down attempt was the dip at about 20 min remaining, not at 35 min remaining.
Interestingly, this very closely follows my optimism and dread for the game as I watched it (as a Pittsburgh fan).
I would probably be useful if presented with a few horizontal lines to show % values with 0% in the middle and 100% for each team at the top and bottom.
Also, I wonder if a linear scale is the best. There are a lot of sharp peaks there.
Horizontal lines I'll have tonight. Non-linear scales might be tough.
Also, I left out a label for the trough at about 13 min left in the 4th quarter. PIT had a poor kick off return plus a penalty plus an 8-yd sack, and were pinned at their own 10. That put the JAX WP as high as 0.73.
PIT managed a couple good gains to get the ball out past the 30. At this point they were down by 1 but had the ball with a 1st down, and therefore were slightly favored to win. But they were forced to punt on the next series.
JAX put together a drive with a couple long gains, but ultimately punted as well. That's the second of the 2 big spikes for JAX in the 4th quarter.