Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 9

ATL finally moves into the top tier of efficiency to match their undefeated record. The biggest curiosity to me has to be CAR, ranked 6th despite being 1-6. I can see why they're ranked 6th in terms of efficiency--their offensive pass efficiency is 5th in the league, their defense has been a little better than average, and they've had a relatively tough schedule so far. They've been undoing themselves with critical turnovers and have come up short on very high leverage situations. I doubt seriously they are the 6th best team in the league, but they are probably much better than their record currently indicates.

Here are the full efficiency rankings for week 9. Click on the table headers to sort.

1 DEN10.750.5112
2 SF20.690.5134
3 HOU30.670.5063
4 NYG40.620.54420
5 ATL130.600.511314
6 CAR120.600.53911
7 SEA60.580.55196
8 DAL80.570.55159
9 MIA70.560.501715
10 DET110.540.52719
11 GB50.530.501213
12 PIT160.530.51168
13 NE170.530.50227
14 CHI90.520.49271
15 WAS140.510.50523
16 PHI150.510.512212
17 STL100.500.531418
18 OAK210.500.492121
19 TB180.480.48826
20 NYJ190.480.542510
21 MIN200.480.46267
22 BAL220.460.491122
23 CIN230.460.461025
24 ARI240.430.53315
25 SD260.420.462917
26 CLE250.410.462816
27 BUF280.390.462428
28 IND270.380.441831
29 TEN290.370.492330
30 NO300.330.512032
31 JAC310.300.503024
32 KC320.280.453229


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10 Responses to “Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 9”

  1. Independent George says:

    It's interesting how balanced 1-3 are on offense & defense; in recent years, almost all of the major contenders have favored one side of the ball.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Tampa was 21 last week.

  3. Sampo says:

    We should test the prediction model with Pass Success Rate. I can't remember the exact values, but Pass SR was almost as predictive as Yards/Attempt. Could the prediction model be more effective with both SR & YPA? Carolina is 5th in pass yards per attempt but 23th in SR. Is there a statistical tool to calculate the coefficients so we do not double count?

  4. James says:

    Sampo, you need an interdependence test, and as you said YPA and Pass SR will be very interdependent.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Denver at #1? They seem to have beaten a lot of medicore to bad teams this year (Saints defense is terrible, Pittsburgh is very iffy, Raiders are awful, Chargers as well). The two tough tests they had - Atlanta/Houston, both loses. Not to mention New England who aren't firing on all cylinders but still beat them.

  6. SlackerInc says:

    The Carolina thing continues to be a glaring embarrassment to this model that I think you need to look at to tweak it in the offseason. I've seen every snap of every game they've played, and they haven't just gotten unlucky. Maybe they should be 3-4 instead of 1-6, but they are very mediocre.

    Which means if you wiped the slate clean and started a nine game season right now, they would not make the NFC playoffs, although if you moved them to the AFC they might be able to pull a wild card there.

  7. tmk says:

    @ Alan

    The model is not designed to explain the past, but predict the future. I think the Carolina numbers are great because it shows evidence of the fallibility of statistical analysis in the NFL. If Carolina played 160 games this season, we should expect to see a win/loss record that better reflects their ranking.

  8. underdog says:

    Regarding the anonymous comment about Denver:
    I wouldn't say they're the best team in the league literally, either, but them ranking high in efficiency makes sense. What the cherry picking commenter above misses is the point about how pretty much all their losses could very well have had different outcomes if they hadn't turned the ball over. Now, TOs seem like something that should make a team less efficient, but the point is in other facets of the game they've been very efficient.

    Oh, and about schedule? They had literally the toughest schedule in the NFL up through first 6 games. If you thought their schedule was easy how do you feel about all the other teams ranking below them?

  9. SlackerInc says:

    @tmk: Read my comment again and you'll see I was talking about the future. I said even if they got to start fresh right now, unencumbered by the poor record they have already amassed, they are still not good enough to make the NFC playoffs.

  10. LamKram says:

    I have a much simpler prediction model that I've been using, and I also have Denver ranked #1. It simply looks at the the score of each game of each team relative to the average PF and PA of their opponents. This gives a measure (in points) of how much each team's offense and defense over- or underperformed relative to their opponent's opponents.

    By this measure, Denver is #1. In fact, they outperformed their opponent's opponents in EVERY GAME they played this season (including their three losses). They are the only team in the NFL for which that is true. Even undefeated Atlanta underperformed the average team in their wins against Oakland and Carolina.

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