I was a guest on Peter King's podcast at SI today. We talked about the role of analytics, RB impacts, and some overlooked performances of the season.
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Peter King Podcast
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Brian Burke
published on 1/03/2013
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I would be interested to see a more thorough analysis of the 2-pt conversion question. I get frustrated that the discussion always seems to immediately divert away from game context and towards discussion of conversion rates and whether a rate better than 50% can be achieved.
To me the question should be "for a given situation, how high does a 2-pt conversion rate have to be to make it a worthwhile gamble?"
Obviously, down by 1 with no time left on the clock, you would compare conversion rate of a 2pt attempt with the odds of winning overtime.
Tied with no time left on the clock, the conversion rate would have to be higher than the odds of making the kick.
But what about early in the game? I think that in most cases, there are too many unknowns to know which is more likely to lead to a win. Almost to the point where I would in fact think that perhaps that 15 minutes that you'll save in practice is worth just kicking the point most of the time.