Roundup 11/2/13

What if MLB played an NFL-style schedule? Helmet knock-Tango.

Although I sometimes use Vegas numbers as a benchmark, I don't pick against the spread. I just doesn't interest me. But I know a lot of our readers do. If so, beware of guys like me. Also beware of small sample analysis.

Scott from Football Outsiders uses WPA to evaluate for Calvin Johnson's case to be MVP. ($)

Keith's efficiency numbers underscore Johnson's case.

We have a Doug Drinen sighting! Doug devises a stat for moral victory.

I also thought the Verducci effect was bunk. Via Tango.

Which QBs are able to extend pass plays most often?

Bill looks at how the read option is faring in 2013.

How much does home field advantage vary from team to team?

The WP model is slightly overconfident in the endgame, which means the comeback factors can be exaggerated. There are a couple things going on here. One is, as the article theorizes, that it's getting easier for teams to score quickly on desperation drives. The other problem is the WP (the free automatic one everyone sees) model has problems with 4th downs. It's great at knowing when teams should go for it, but it doesn't always know when teams actually do go for it. On occasion, the model will wrongly think a team will kick or punt when it would be suicidal. I have a very nice fix, but I haven't put it into the public model yet.

Oh, so this is how the Chiefs were able to storm back to a winning record this year.

And the NFL has picked a winner in the expansion team sweepstakes.

Lastly, in case you missed it, check out Dave's great interview on the podcast with former NFL QB and founder of football analytics Virgil Carter.

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1 Responses to “Roundup 11/2/13”

  1. James says:

    The BR article annoys me because the title says "and here's why" without giving any actual analysis as to *why* those sites are struggling. It's also a tiny sample of only 8 weeks!

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