The updated Super Bowl probabilities are out. Despite the #1 vs. #2 match-ups in week 16, there aren't any big changes this week. The big drop-off between the top 5 and everyone else is mostly due to two factors: 1) just clinching a playoff spot, and 2) getting a first round bye.
| Team | Conf Champ | SB Champ |
 PIT | 39 | 20 |
 CAR | 33 | 20 |
 TEN | 35 | 15 |
 NYG | 29 | 13 |
 ATL | 25 | 15 |
 MIA | 5 | 2 |
 IND | 5 | 2 |
 BAL | 5 | 2 |
 TB | 3 | 1 |
 MIN | 2 | 1 |
 ARI | 2 | 1 |
 PHI | 1 | 1 |
 DAL | 1 | 1 |
 DEN | 1 | 1 |
Thanks as always to NFL-Forecast.com.
Do the bye teams' chances reflect any advantage beyond needing one fewer game? That is, is there any adjustment for the week off, on top of a normal home-field advantage?
Yes.