Week 16 Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	CAR	2	0.78	0.55	6	7
2	ATL	3	0.76	0.57	1	16
3	PHI	4	0.76	0.52	10	2
4	PIT	1	0.74	0.54	20	1
5	SD	8	0.71	0.53	4	12
6	NO	6	0.70	0.54	2	14
7	NYG	5	0.70	0.53	3	11
8	TEN	7	0.69	0.44	15	4
9	WAS	10	0.66	0.52	11	10
10	MIA	9	0.64	0.42	5	20
11	BAL	13	0.64	0.52	19	3
12	IND	14	0.63	0.47	8	19
13	TB	12	0.62	0.58	18	8
14	DAL	11	0.61	0.52	16	9
15	CHI	15	0.59	0.52	22	6
16	NE	20	0.55	0.47	14	23
17	GB	17	0.54	0.55	12	17
18	MIN	18	0.53	0.51	25	5
19	DEN	19	0.50	0.49	7	26
20	ARI	16	0.50	0.51	9	24
21	NYJ	21	0.45	0.43	23	15
22	HOU	22	0.41	0.49	13	30
23	JAX	23	0.35	0.49	17	27
24	SF	26	0.33	0.48	24	25
25	BUF	24	0.33	0.43	27	21
26	OAK	30	0.31	0.55	30	13
27	KC	27	0.31	0.54	21	28
28	SEA	25	0.30	0.46	31	18
29	CIN	28	0.29	0.56	32	22
30	CLE	29	0.22	0.55	26	29
31	STL	31	0.16	0.50	28	31
32	DET	32	0.13	0.58	29	32

To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.0	3.3	0.024	0.028	6.5	4.0	0.023	0.37
ATL	7.4	4.1	0.022	0.015	6.1	4.9	0.019	0.31
BAL	5.7	4.0	0.029	0.026	5.1	3.5	0.048	0.39
BUF	6.0	4.2	0.033	0.035	6.3	4.4	0.021	0.29
CAR	7.1	4.8	0.030	0.015	5.6	4.4	0.022	0.33
CHI	5.5	3.9	0.029	0.015	5.8	3.4	0.038	0.31
CIN	4.3	3.5	0.031	0.028	6.4	4.0	0.026	0.29
CLE	4.8	3.9	0.038	0.024	7.1	4.5	0.053	0.34
DAL	6.7	4.3	0.038	0.029	5.2	4.3	0.016	0.50
DEN	7.1	4.7	0.028	0.020	6.9	4.8	0.013	0.35
DET	5.3	3.8	0.036	0.039	7.9	5.0	0.010	0.37
GB	6.6	3.9	0.025	0.021	6.0	4.7	0.042	0.49
HOU	7.1	4.3	0.039	0.029	7.0	4.5	0.028	0.33
IND	6.8	3.4	0.022	0.010	6.0	4.1	0.032	0.32
JAX	5.8	4.2	0.021	0.018	7.0	4.0	0.030	0.43
KC	5.4	4.9	0.032	0.022	7.2	5.0	0.026	0.30
MIA	7.1	4.2	0.015	0.016	6.2	4.2	0.029	0.35
MIN	5.9	4.5	0.038	0.028	5.9	3.2	0.024	0.36
NE	6.1	4.5	0.021	0.017	6.5	4.1	0.031	0.26
NO	7.7	4.0	0.029	0.019	6.2	4.1	0.030	0.39
NYG	6.1	5.0	0.022	0.018	5.6	4.0	0.034	0.42
NYJ	5.9	4.8	0.041	0.022	6.1	3.7	0.026	0.28
OAK	5.1	4.2	0.025	0.036	6.3	4.7	0.034	0.43
PHI	6.2	4.0	0.027	0.014	5.1	3.5	0.029	0.33
PIT	5.9	3.6	0.029	0.028	4.4	3.3	0.035	0.40
SD	7.6	3.8	0.024	0.019	6.2	3.9	0.023	0.37
SF	5.9	4.0	0.038	0.042	6.2	3.8	0.023	0.38
SEA	5.1	4.3	0.030	0.020	6.8	4.1	0.015	0.28
STL	5.2	3.8	0.039	0.024	7.3	4.7	0.024	0.38
TB	6.0	4.0	0.023	0.020	5.9	4.2	0.046	0.40
TEN	6.2	4.3	0.021	0.019	5.0	3.7	0.037	0.44
WAS	5.6	4.4	0.013	0.020	5.7	3.8	0.025	0.35
Avg	6.1	4.1	0.028	0.023	6.2	4.1	0.028	0.36