Week 16 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 16 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

0.65 IND at JAX 0.35
0.40 BAL at DAL 0.60
0.42 CIN at CLE 0.58
0.90 NO at DET 0.10
0.77 MIA at KC 0.23
0.67 ATL at MIN 0.33
0.48 ARI at NE 0.52
0.50 CAR at NYG 0.50
0.67 SF at STL 0.33
0.51 PIT at TEN 0.49
0.53 PHI at WAS 0.47
0.27 BUF at DEN 0.73
0.60 HOU at OAK 0.40
0.57 NYJ at SEA 0.43
0.45 SD at TB 0.55
0.32 GB at CHI 0.68

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6 Responses to “Week 16 Game Probabilities”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Amazing, the two "BIG" games this week are virtual coin tosses.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Giants in a squeaker, at 0.5009.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Wow, you sure were right about the Giants!

  4. Brian Burke says:

    The model only went 8-8 this week. You could say it was its worst week ever. But I would say it was among its best weeks. Why?

    Because it was a week full of upsets. Consensus favorites, defined by Vegas favorites, were 6-10.

    The way I look at it, the model was +2.

    Nothing says that the NFL's upsets need to be evenly paced throughout each week of the season.

  5. Anonymous says:

    I think the model was 7-9, not 8-8

  6. Brian Burke says:

    IND, NO, MIA, ATL, NE, NYG, SF, CHI. I count 8.

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