Vikings Open & Cardinals Close

On a crazy Sunday with upsets out the wazoo, the most surprising win had to be Christian Ponder and his lowly Vikings taking down the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota outplayed the Niners from the very start of the game; their opening drive lasted 7 minutes and 40 seconds and went 82 yards over 16 plays for the first score of the game.

The Cardinals dominated the Eagles all game long, but after back-to-back field goals to bring the game within 18 points (why do teams still kick field goals down 21 in the third or fourth quarter?), Arizona needed to seal the win. They did so with a 13-play, six-and-a-half minute drive (including two Eagles timeouts), which resulted in a field goal.

Using our Markov model, let's look at these two game-changing drives.

The biggest play of the drive was play 12, an 11-yard completion to tight end Kyle Rudolph (TD probability increases by about 40%). Adrian Peterson ran the ball eight times on the drive, with not a single rush exceeding five yards. The highlight, however, was Minnesota going for it on 4th-and-Goal from the 1-yard line. That is clearly the correct decision, but even more so as a significant underdog. Over the course of that very first drive, the Vikings win probability increased to 72%. It would not fall below 60% for the remainder of the game.

Arizona was likely to win (97% win probability) entering the drive, but in order to end the game they needed to take some time off the clock - and take some time off the clock they did. Ryan Williams ran all over the Eagles, converting two separate 3rd downs (play 6 and play 10). The most crushing blow was play 6, on 3rd-and-17 from their own 32-yard line. At that point, teams punt over 80% of the time. Only 6% of all drives containing that situation result in touchdowns, and only 3.9% end in field goals (less than the probability of an interception). The Cardinals do what anyone would expect them to do in a situation where they want to play it safe and run down the clock, they run a draw play. Williams takes it for 25 yards before DeMeco Ryans forces him out of bounds.

One other note on the day is that the Saints had an opportunity to go for it on 4th-and-2 at the end of the first quarter/start of the second quarter. As I mentioned previously, Aaron Kromer does not exactly follow the Sean Payton rulebook on 4th down decisions. Rather than go for it, which is statistically the better option (although not dramatically: +2.28 EP going for it vs +1.66 EP field goal), Kromer has Brees play possum until the end of the quarter and then brings on Garrett Hartley for the chip shot. Especially at 0-3, the Saints are going to have to make gutsier play-calls if they want any chance at salvaging their season. That and a complete overhaul on the defensive side of the ball.

Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform.  Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.