Game probabilities for week 4 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
If you happen to be a new reader, it might be worth your while to go through my archive there. Most weeks feature a lead-in discussing or applying one of the many concepts written about in these spaces.
Week 4 Game Probabilities
published on 9/27/2012
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Dude, that's awesome. Have you looked for any relationship between the difference in your predicted win probabilities and the "excitement index" that ended up resulting from the game? In other words, could one estimate with a high degree of confidence that the Chargers game this weekend is going to be really exciting, while the Texans game is not? Even better would be an exptected excitement index. This would be a huge asset to somebody, say a friend of mine, who is trying to decide where to sit in the bar all day on Sunday.