Playoff Probabilities Week 10

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team. The tables below include results from the Thursday night Jets-Patriots game.

These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has (wisely?) used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

But if you don't like my numbers you can easily change them. Or you can play what-if scenarios. What if the Cowboys beat the Redskins this weekend? How would that change their chances for the playoffs? In fact, to account for last night's game, I simply slid the slider to 100% for the Jets to give them the win. Pretty cool.

Last year, I linked to the NFL-Forecast page each week, but this year Chris has agreed to allow me to duplicate his tables here. Don't forget to try out his NFL forecast software.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.





















































AFC EAST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 4833145
NY Jets 4036186
Buffalo9193439
New England 4133450
AFC NORTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 821800
Baltimore 188200
Cleveland 00937
Cincinnati 00793
AFC SOUTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 99100
Indianapolis 187111
Jacksonville 0106525
Houston 022573
AFC WEST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 683110
Denver 326620
Oakland 037423
Kansas City 002377
NFC EAST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 5930101
Washington 3445183
Philadelphia 6225418
Dallas 041878
NFC NORTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 761680
Minnesota 1452340
Green Bay 1032580
Detroit 000100
NFC SOUTH
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 5229163
Atlanta 2634319
Tampa Bay 20303514
New Orleans 271873
NFC WEST
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 99000
Seattle 1414316
San Francisco 0443819
St Louis 0161965












































AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee9072010100
Pittsburgh64026114490
NY Jets214195131668
Miami122242121576
Baltimore0773131848
Indianapolis1000421963
San Diego0414511272
Buffalo044081330
New England02114815
Denver013271234
Jacksonville0000122
Cleveland0000000
Oakland0000000
Kansas City0000000
Houston0000001
Cincinnati0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 613374300100
NY Giants 381551211090
Washington 22920351382
Chicago 2631370177
Carolina 202561121376
Atlanta 5146181650
Tampa Bay 4114181745
Philadelphia 2310142141
Minnesota 11571318
Green Bay 00280010
Dallas 0000247
New Orleans 0110035
Seattle 0000000
San Francisco 0000000
St Louis 0000000
Detroit 0000000

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1 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Week 10”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Poor lions.

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