Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team. The tables below include results from the Thursday night Jets-Patriots game.
These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has (wisely?) used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
But if you don't like my numbers you can easily change them. Or you can play what-if scenarios. What if the Cowboys beat the Redskins this weekend? How would that change their chances for the playoffs? In fact, to account for last night's game, I simply slid the slider to 100% for the Jets to give them the win. Pretty cool.
Last year, I linked to the NFL-Forecast page each week, but this year Chris has agreed to allow me to duplicate his tables here. Don't forget to try out his NFL forecast software.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Miami 48 33 14 5 NY Jets 40 36 18 6 Buffalo 9 19 34 39 New England 4 13 34 50 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 82 18 0 0 Baltimore 18 82 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 93 7 Cincinnati 0 0 7 93 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tennessee 99 1 0 0 Indianapolis 1 87 11 1 Jacksonville 0 10 65 25 Houston 0 2 25 73 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th San Diego 68 31 1 0 Denver 32 66 2 0 Oakland 0 3 74 23 Kansas City 0 0 23 77 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Giants 59 30 10 1 Washington 34 45 18 3 Philadelphia 6 22 54 18 Dallas 0 4 18 78 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Chicago 76 16 8 0 Minnesota 14 52 34 0 Green Bay 10 32 58 0 Detroit 0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Carolina 52 29 16 3 Atlanta 26 34 31 9 Tampa Bay 20 30 35 14 New Orleans 2 7 18 73 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Arizona 99 0 0 0 Seattle 1 41 43 16 San Francisco 0 44 38 19 St Louis 0 16 19 65 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Tennessee 90 7 2 0 1 0 100 Pittsburgh 6 40 26 11 4 4 90 NY Jets 2 14 19 5 13 16 68 Miami 1 22 24 2 12 15 76 Baltimore 0 7 7 3 13 18 48 Indianapolis 1 0 0 0 42 19 63 San Diego 0 4 14 51 1 2 72 Buffalo 0 4 4 0 8 13 30 New England 0 2 1 1 4 8 15 Denver 0 1 3 27 1 2 34 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Houston 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Arizona 6 13 37 43 0 0 100 NY Giants 38 15 5 1 21 10 90 Washington 22 9 2 0 35 13 82 Chicago 2 6 31 37 0 1 77 Carolina 20 25 6 1 12 13 76 Atlanta 5 14 6 1 8 16 50 Tampa Bay 4 11 4 1 8 17 45 Philadelphia 2 3 1 0 14 21 41 Minnesota 1 1 5 7 1 3 18 Green Bay 0 0 2 8 0 0 10 Dallas 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 New Orleans 0 1 1 0 0 3 5 Seattle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Playoff Probabilities Week 10
By
Brian Burke
published on 11/14/2008
in
playoff forecasts
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Poor lions.