Week 9 Team Efficiency Rankings

There's a new number one this week. The Redskins' lackluster game allowed the Eagles to take the top spot. What separates them from their New York division-mates is opponent strength. While Philadelphia has faced the 10th toughest schedule, New York's schedule was second easiest in the league. I think the Giants are a very good team, and their win over Pittsburgh was impressive, but they've spent most of the season playing patty-cake with the Rams, Bengals, Seahawks, Browns, 49ers, and a hapless Cowboy team without a quarterback.

Only the Titans have had an easier schedule. What at first seemed like circle 'em on the schedule type games don't appear so impressive anymore. The Jaguars, Colts, and Packers aren't frightening anyone like they did last year. Tennessee's other opponents included the Bengals, Texans, Vikings, Chiefs, and Ravens (who actually outplayed them).

The Steelers defense is truly impressive this year. Their DGWP is 0.83, meaning that if they had a league-average offense, their defense could be expected to carry them to a 13-3 record. Unfortunately, their offense is well below average, ranked 25th with an OGWP of only 0.40.

The Falcons have to be the biggest surprise right now. At 5-3 they are ranked 6th in terms of efficiency. You might think that means my system is out to lunch, but Atlanta is solidly above average in every phase of the game except defensive rush efficiency (which is statistically the least correlated with winning in the regular season).

The other curiosity this week is the Bills. They slipped from 10th to 18th. I double checked their numbers, and they indeed slipped in every statistical category except one--offensive passing, where they held even. Perhaps even more surprising is that just 2 weeks ago Buffalo was ranked 5th. Either they over-performed beyond their true ability in the early season, or they've suffered some serious injuries. Either way, they are steadily regressing. Also keep in mind that most teams are tightly clustered around the average, so a significant decline will move a team down several ranks.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	PHI	2	0.78	0.52	2	6
2	WAS	1	0.75	0.51	5	3
3	CAR	3	0.75	0.57	9	2
4	SD	4	0.72	0.51	1	17
5	CHI	5	0.67	0.52	12	7
6	ATL	12	0.67	0.50	4	18
7	PIT	11	0.66	0.51	25	1
8	NYG	6	0.66	0.43	8	13
9	MIA	7	0.65	0.51	6	23
10	NO	8	0.62	0.55	3	19
11	ARI	14	0.61	0.53	7	21
12	TEN	15	0.60	0.42	15	5
13	TB	9	0.57	0.53	18	4
14	DAL	13	0.55	0.52	17	9
15	GB	17	0.54	0.50	10	10
16	IND	18	0.54	0.50	11	14
17	MIN	17	0.53	0.54	20	11
18	BUF	10	0.53	0.46	23	15
19	BAL	20	0.51	0.45	21	8
20	NYJ	19	0.47	0.45	30	12
21	DEN	21	0.42	0.47	19	24
22	HOU	22	0.41	0.47	14	30
23	JAX	23	0.37	0.47	13	28
24	NE	25	0.34	0.44	26	27
25	SF	28	0.33	0.50	22	25
26	CLE	26	0.33	0.54	16	26
27	SEA	28	0.32	0.48	31	16
28	OAK	24	0.31	0.52	29	22
29	STL	27	0.24	0.57	24	29
30	CIN	30	0.23	0.51	32	20
31	KC	31	0.20	0.50	27	32
32	DET	32	0.20	0.57	28	31

The to-date season efficiency stats are listed below. Click on the table headers to sort.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.4	3.6	0.020	0.023	6.6	3.9	0.021	0.43
ATL	6.6	4.7	0.022	0.010	5.9	4.7	0.023	0.35
BAL	5.9	3.9	0.032	0.026	5.5	2.8	0.041	0.46
BUF	6.8	3.6	0.025	0.033	6.2	3.8	0.020	0.31
CAR	7.1	3.7	0.022	0.018	5.5	4.0	0.019	0.39
CHI	6.3	3.8	0.019	0.017	5.7	3.5	0.036	0.37
CIN	4.1	3.7	0.033	0.031	6.2	4.2	0.019	0.36
CLE	5.5	3.7	0.029	0.024	6.6	4.7	0.039	0.39
DAL	6.6	4.5	0.037	0.035	5.6	4.2	0.010	0.50
DEN	6.9	4.4	0.033	0.028	6.7	5.1	0.011	0.39
DET	5.3	3.8	0.033	0.036	7.9	4.7	0.009	0.40
GB	6.6	3.7	0.019	0.027	5.2	4.9	0.048	0.56
HOU	6.8	4.2	0.035	0.030	7.3	4.5	0.029	0.22
IND	6.4	3.3	0.031	0.008	5.8	4.2	0.025	0.38
JAX	5.7	4.0	0.019	0.015	6.7	4.5	0.028	0.42
KC	4.7	4.5	0.030	0.024	7.4	5.4	0.029	0.30
MIA	7.4	3.7	0.016	0.017	7.0	3.5	0.027	0.30
MIN	5.9	4.4	0.035	0.024	6.4	3.0	0.022	0.43
NE	5.5	4.3	0.028	0.016	7.1	4.1	0.035	0.27
NO	8.1	3.4	0.023	0.031	6.4	4.3	0.021	0.50
NYG	6.4	5.2	0.020	0.019	5.2	3.8	0.046	0.51
NYJ	6.0	4.5	0.048	0.025	6.1	3.1	0.025	0.31
OAK	4.8	4.4	0.019	0.035	6.6	4.5	0.029	0.42
PHI	7.0	3.9	0.017	0.017	5.4	3.5	0.031	0.31
PIT	5.8	3.7	0.036	0.029	4.2	2.9	0.029	0.42
SD	8.1	3.9	0.026	0.017	6.4	4.0	0.019	0.37
SF	6.0	4.5	0.045	0.044	6.4	3.6	0.031	0.48
SEA	4.7	4.3	0.031	0.009	7.0	3.8	0.011	0.28
STL	5.2	3.9	0.026	0.026	7.6	4.9	0.025	0.44
TB	5.9	4.2	0.026	0.019	5.7	3.8	0.042	0.47
TEN	5.7	4.4	0.022	0.015	5.1	3.8	0.045	0.34
WAS	6.2	4.6	0.007	0.014	5.5	3.6	0.020	0.38
Avg	6.2	4.1	0.027	0.023	6.2	4.0	0.027	0.39

This week's ratings are listed in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat a notional league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining variables.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is the ranking of offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.