Playoff Probabilities Week 12

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris uses the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	65	22	11	1
Miami	24	37	32	6
New England	9	36	43	12
Buffalo	1	5	14	80
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	92	8	0	0
Baltimore	8	92	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	94	6
Cincinnati	0	0	6	94
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	100	1	0	0
Indianapolis	1	99	0	0
Houston	0	0	59	41
Jacksonville	0	0	41	59
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	56	42	1	0
Denver	43	56	1	0
Oakland	0	2	93	5
Kansas City	0	0	5	95
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	93	6	1	0
Washington	7	71	18	5
Dallas	1	16	56	28
Philadelphia	0	7	25	68
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	67	21	12	0
Green Bay	16	43	42	0
Minnesota	17	36	46	0
Detroit	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	45	29	20	6
Atlanta	20	34	32	13
Tampa Bay	27	26	27	21
New Orleans	8	12	21	60
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	53	41	6
Seattle	0	39	48	13
St Louis	0	8	11	81

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	81	14	4	0	0	0	100
Pittsburgh	14	50	29	0	1	3	96
NY Jets	5	25	34	1	5	13	83
New England	0	5	5	0	5	19	33
Baltimore	0	4	4	0	9	32	48
Miami	0	2	22	0	3	18	45
Indianapolis	0	0	0	0	77	13	90
San Diego	0	0	0	56	0	0	56
Denver	0	0	1	42	0	0	43
Buffalo	0	0	1	0	0	2	4
Oakland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cincinnati	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacksonville	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NY Giants	73	18	1	0	4	2	99
Carolina	17	26	2	0	13	16	75
Tampa Bay	3	18	5	0	8	15	50
Washington	4	2	0	0	48	20	75
Arizona	1	17	59	23	0	0	100
Atlanta	1	14	5	0	15	20	56
Chicago	0	2	18	47	0	0	67
New Orleans	0	3	4	1	1	7	16
Dallas	0	0	0	0	8	15	24
Minnesota	0	0	3	14	0	0	18
Green Bay	0	0	1	15	0	0	16
Philadelphia	0	0	0	0	2	4	6
Detroit	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
St Louis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seattle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0