Playoff Probabilities Week 12

Courtesy of Chris at, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris uses the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 6522111
Miami 2437326
New England 9364312
Buffalo 151480
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 92800
Baltimore 89200
Cleveland 00946
Cincinnati 00694
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 100100
Indianapolis 19900
Houston 005941
Jacksonville 004159
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 564210
Denver 435610
Oakland 02935
Kansas City 00595
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 93610
Washington 771185
Dallas 1165628
Philadelphia 072568
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 6721120
Green Bay 1643420
Minnesota 1736460
Detroit 000100
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 4529206
Atlanta 20343213
Tampa Bay 27262721
New Orleans 8122160
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100000
San Francisco 053416
Seattle 0394813
St Louis 081181

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 81144000100
Pittsburgh 14502901396
NY Jets 52534151383
New England 055051933
Baltimore 044093248
Miami 0222031845
Indianapolis 0000771390
San Diego 000560056
Denver 001420043
Buffalo 0010024
Oakland 0000000
Kansas City 0000000
Houston 0000000
Cincinnati 0000000
Cleveland 0000000
Jacksonville 0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 7318104299
Carolina 172620131675
Tampa Bay 3185081550
Washington 4200482075
Arizona 117592300100
Atlanta 11450152056
Chicago 0218470067
New Orleans 03411716
Dallas 000081524
Minnesota 003140018
Green Bay 001150016
Philadelphia 0000246
Detroit 0000000
St Louis 0000000
San Francisco 0000000
Seattle 0000000

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2 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Week 12”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I have a hunch that the Vikings take a huge jump forward for the next playoff prediction!

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Definitely. Go to for an early peek.

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