Week 11 Efficiency Rankings

The Dolphins are ranked #3 this week. Really? Why is Philly ranked so high but they keep losing, or at least not winning? Chicago's embarrassment at the hands of Green Bay drop them out of the top 10. Buffalo's free-fall continues. Pittsburgh's defense is still carrying a woeful offense toward a possible first-round bye. The Giants inch up after rolling over Baltimore, as does Tennessee after their comeback over the Jaguars.

As I discussed in my recent analysis of both the Dolphins and the Jets, Miami is a very solid team across the board. Despite apparently squeaking by the horrid Raiders 17-15 last Sunday, they actually played quite well. The Dolphins converted 20 first downs compared to only 11 for Oakland. They ran for 6.3 yards per rush and threw for a more modest but above average 6.4 yards per pass attempt. They also held the Raiders to only 3.9 yards per rush and 4.1 yards per pass attempt. Results like these go to show just how deceiving a final score can be (or just how meaningless stats can be, depending on your point of view).

The Eagles are frustrating. By all measures they should be carving up the league. Despite their ability to move the ball and stop opposing offenses, they aren't converting all those yards into wins. Their special teams aren't terribly good--average to slightly below average in most categories (although punt stats are very deceiving because good offenses tend to have less room to punt). Game day coaching tactics might share some blame too. They're also slightly unlucky, with an average defensive interception rate and fumble recovery rate.

But by far, the biggest reason for the Eagles disconnect between efficiency and wins is "bunching." Philadelphia's wins have mostly been blow-outs, and their losses have been squeakers. Their average winning margin has been 18 points while their average losing margin has been less than 5. I can't say conclusively that this bodes well for the Eagles, but I'd definitely rather be a 5-4-1 team with great internal stats than one with very poor ones.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	PHI	1	0.76	0.50	8	6
2	WAS	2	0.75	0.52	7	7
3	MIA	8	0.70	0.48	4	20
4	SD	3	0.70	0.52	3	21
5	ATL	4	0.70	0.51	1	22
6	NYG	7	0.70	0.46	5	11
7	CAR	5	0.69	0.51	18	3
8	PIT	9	0.69	0.53	24	1
9	TEN	10	0.69	0.44	15	2
10	ARI	11	0.67	0.52	2	19
11	CHI	6	0.64	0.54	12	9
12	TB	13	0.62	0.54	17	5
13	NO	12	0.62	0.53	6	23
14	DAL	15	0.60	0.55	19	4
15	GB	16	0.59	0.52	11	8
16	IND	14	0.58	0.53	9	18
17	DEN	21	0.54	0.50	10	25
18	NYJ	19	0.51	0.44	25	13
19	MIN	17	0.50	0.56	22	12
20	NE	22	0.48	0.47	20	24
21	BAL	18	0.48	0.50	21	10
22	BUF	20	0.46	0.45	28	14
23	HOU	24	0.44	0.50	13	29
24	JAX	23	0.37	0.48	14	27
25	CLE	26	0.34	0.53	16	28
26	SEA	27	0.32	0.48	30	17
27	SF	25	0.29	0.53	26	26
28	OAK	28	0.27	0.56	32	15
29	KC	29	0.25	0.56	23	30
30	CIN	30	0.24	0.56	31	16
31	STL	31	0.16	0.55	27	32
32	DET	32	0.15	0.56	29	31

To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.6	3.4	0.018	0.022	6.3	3.8	0.032	0.44
ATL	7.0	4.4	0.021	0.008	6.2	4.9	0.026	0.33
BAL	5.8	4.0	0.032	0.023	5.8	3.4	0.049	0.47
BUF	6.5	3.8	0.038	0.029	6.1	3.9	0.016	0.29
CAR	6.4	4.4	0.032	0.017	5.2	4.0	0.027	0.38
CHI	5.9	3.8	0.018	0.016	5.9	3.4	0.032	0.36
CIN	4.2	3.5	0.029	0.031	6.1	4.2	0.024	0.34
CLE	5.5	4.1	0.022	0.021	7.1	4.7	0.044	0.33
DAL	6.7	4.4	0.040	0.034	5.3	4.2	0.012	0.49
DEN	7.3	4.5	0.029	0.023	6.8	4.9	0.012	0.36
DET	5.4	3.8	0.036	0.032	7.8	5.1	0.007	0.37
GB	6.5	4.0	0.019	0.026	5.1	4.9	0.048	0.56
HOU	6.9	4.5	0.043	0.028	7.1	4.5	0.022	0.25
IND	6.4	3.5	0.024	0.006	6.1	4.3	0.034	0.38
JAX	5.7	4.1	0.019	0.014	6.8	4.3	0.031	0.42
KC	4.9	4.5	0.026	0.024	7.5	5.1	0.032	0.29
MIA	7.1	4.2	0.016	0.016	6.5	3.7	0.022	0.31
MIN	5.7	4.5	0.039	0.025	6.3	3.1	0.018	0.41
NE	5.9	4.2	0.021	0.016	6.8	4.0	0.035	0.25
NO	7.9	3.7	0.028	0.027	6.5	4.3	0.020	0.43
NYG	6.3	5.3	0.023	0.021	5.2	4.0	0.046	0.48
NYJ	6.2	4.4	0.040	0.023	6.1	3.4	0.025	0.28
OAK	4.5	4.3	0.022	0.038	6.2	4.8	0.038	0.44
PHI	6.6	4.0	0.023	0.016	5.3	3.6	0.027	0.32
PIT	5.9	3.6	0.036	0.024	4.4	3.0	0.029	0.44
SD	7.8	3.8	0.034	0.016	6.4	4.1	0.015	0.33
SF	6.1	4.4	0.043	0.041	6.4	3.7	0.028	0.47
SEA	4.6	4.2	0.034	0.014	7.0	4.0	0.014	0.26
STL	5.1	4.1	0.032	0.029	7.8	4.7	0.022	0.41
TB	6.1	4.1	0.024	0.019	5.6	3.8	0.039	0.47
TEN	6.1	4.0	0.020	0.016	4.9	3.8	0.042	0.36
WAS	5.9	4.6	0.010	0.013	5.6	3.7	0.024	0.35
Avg	6.1	4.1	0.028	0.022	6.2	4.1	0.028	0.38