Week 12 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 12 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

0.09 CIN at PIT 0.91
0.40 CAR at ATL 0.60
0.64 BUF at KC 0.36
0.87 CHI at STL 0.13
0.25 NYJ at TEN 0.75
0.21 NE at MIA 0.79
0.54 MIN at JAX 0.46
0.70 PHI at BAL 0.30
0.51 HOU at CLE 0.49
0.87 TB at DET 0.13
0.17 SF at DAL 0.83
0.17 OAK at DEN 0.83
0.44 NYG at ARI 0.56
0.83 WAS at SEA 0.17
0.29 IND at SD 0.71
0.37 GB at NO 0.63

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2 Responses to “Week 12 Game Probabilities”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Can you tell me how much home feild advantage increases a teams Pwin? And how did you determine this amount? Thanks in advance.


  2. Brian Burke says:

    Joe-HFA is determined through the logistic regression discussed in the links above. For perfectly equally-matched teams, it's as high as 9% and diminishes as the teams become further apart in strength. Here is more on how HFA changes with varying team strength.

    On average, HFA averages to about a +7 or +7.5% advantage for the home team, or in other words, about a 57 to 43 edge.

    More HFA articles here.

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