Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP) which is the chance a team will win against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. The projections account for future opponent strength (Fut Opp), and projected wins (proj W) is a total of current and estimated future wins. The methodology is described more fully here.
Soon, I'll be teaming up again with NFL Forecast to feature playoff probabilities for each team. It's harder than it seems thanks to the NFL's incredibly complex tie-breaking rules, so we're fortunate to have an iron-clad system like NFL Forecast's.RANK TEAM Fut Opp GWP Proj GWP Curr W Proj W AFC East 9 MIA 0.34 0.78 4 10.2 18 BUF 0.39 0.64 5 10.1 20 NYJ 0.43 0.54 5 9.3 24 NE 0.51 0.33 5 7.6 AFC North 7 PIT 0.48 0.68 6 11.5 19 BAL 0.55 0.46 5 8.7 26 CLE 0.52 0.31 3 5.2 30 CIN 0.54 0.20 1 2.4 AFC South 12 TEN 0.46 0.64 8 13.1 16 IND 0.44 0.60 4 8.8 22 HOU 0.49 0.43 3 6.4 23 JAX 0.50 0.37 3 6.0 AFC West 4 SD 0.44 0.76 3 9.1 21 DEN 0.50 0.42 4 7.8 28 OAK 0.51 0.30 2 4.4 31 KC 0.52 0.19 1 2.5 RANK TEAM Fut Opp GWP Proj GWP Curr W Proj W NFC East 2 WAS 0.48 0.77 6 11.4 1 PHI 0.54 0.75 5 11.0 8 NYG 0.66 0.50 7 11.0 14 DAL 0.58 0.47 5 8.3 NFC North 5 CHI 0.48 0.69 5 10.5 17 MIN 0.50 0.53 4 8.3 15 GB 0.53 0.51 4 8.1 32 DET 0.56 0.16 0 1.3 NFC South 3 CAR 0.50 0.75 6 12.0 6 ATL 0.56 0.61 5 9.9 13 TB 0.54 0.53 6 9.7 10 NO 0.53 0.59 4 8.8 NFC West 11 ARI 0.54 0.57 5 9.6 27 SF 0.50 0.32 2 4.6 25 SEA 0.53 0.31 2 4.5 29 STL 0.51 0.23 2 3.9
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Week 9 Standings Forecast
By
Brian Burke
published on 11/07/2008
in
standings forecast
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