Playoff Probabilities Week 11

Courtesy of Chris at, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris uses the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 613081
NY Jets 3447173
New England 4165229
Buffalo 172468
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 946

Baltimore 69210
Cleveland 02953
Cincinnati 00397
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 100000
Indianapolis 09730
Jacksonville 036334
Houston 003466
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 633700
San Diego 366300
Oakland 007327
Kansas City 002773
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 801441
Washington 12482713
Philadelphia 6233438
Dallas 2143548
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 5229190
Green Bay 3444230
Minnesota 1427580
Detroit 000100
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 5129164
Tampa Bay 3336229
Atlanta 13274219
New Orleans 382069
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100000
San Francisco 0514010
Seattle 038416
St Louis 0121474

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 9351000100
Pittsburgh 5572841297
Miami 021372121588
Indianapolis 0000552176
NY Jets 110185142270
Denver 028531266
San Diego 002351543
Baltimore 023191733
New England 022041119
Buffalo 0010258
Jacksonville 0000001
Cleveland 0000000
Houston 0000000
Oakland 0000000
Kansas City 0000000
Cincinnati 0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 1423471600100
NY Giants 4822919594
Carolina 222181121276
Washington 5510351966
Tampa Bay 71780121661
Chicago 0111400153
Philadelphia 2310141636
Green Bay 004300034
Atlanta 175081334
Dallas 111091425
Minnesota 003110115
New Orleans 0120136
Detroit 0000000
St Louis 0000000
San Francisco 0000000
Seattle 0000000

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6 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Week 11”

  1. Brian says:

    The predicted division winner is the current division leader in all cases except the AFC East and in the NFC North. The NFC North currently has a 3 way tie for first.

    The AFC East is interesting though. The Jets have a one game lead on Miami. The Jets won the only head to head to head matchup so far and the Jets have the better divisional record right now. Yet Miami's first place probability is nearly twice as much as the Jets. I know Miami has the easier future strength of schedule, but I didn't think it would be enough to overcome the fact that they trail the Jets by a full game right now.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    That is surprising given the head-to-head win the Jets already have. My system just really loves Miami and is low on the Jets and Pats.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Until this week, it also favored San Diego over Denver, despite Denver's lead in the standings. If you consider that Denver has a two game lead, plus Denver won their first encounter, the prediction that Denver has "only" a 63% chance of winning the division is pretty surprising.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Despite the faults of the QB Passer Rating statistic, some of your readers (who use Firefox) might enjoy the following Greasemonkey* script to add the QB Passer Rating information into the and GameCenters. (It also shows the % of each of the 4 rating components achieved.)

    (* - Greasemonkey is a FF Add-on which can be installed here)

  5. Anonymous says:

    Looking at the in game win probabilities -- odd that Dallas gets a safety yet their win probability goes down.

  6. Brian Burke says:

    A couple reasons it looks that way. SF's very bad field position already baked in a big advantage for Dallas. Also, the ensuing free kick gave Dallas relatively poor field position. On average teams get the ball back at their own 44. Dallas got it at the 20-something.

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