Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris uses the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Miami 61 30 8 1 NY Jets 34 47 17 3 New England 4 16 52 29 Buffalo 1 7 24 68 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 94 6 0 0 Baltimore 6 92 1 0 Cleveland 0 2 95 3 Cincinnati 0 0 3 97 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tennessee 100 0 0 0 Indianapolis 0 97 3 0 Jacksonville 0 3 63 34 Houston 0 0 34 66 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 63 37 0 0 San Diego 36 63 0 0 Oakland 0 0 73 27 Kansas City 0 0 27 73 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Giants 80 14 4 1 Washington 12 48 27 13 Philadelphia 6 23 34 38 Dallas 2 14 35 48 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Chicago 52 29 19 0 Green Bay 34 44 23 0 Minnesota 14 27 58 0 Detroit 0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Carolina 51 29 16 4 Tampa Bay 33 36 22 9 Atlanta 13 27 42 19 New Orleans 3 8 20 69 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Arizona 100 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 51 40 10 Seattle 0 38 4 16 St Louis 0 12 14 74 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Tennessee 93 5 1 0 0 0 100 Pittsburgh 5 57 28 4 1 2 97 Miami 0 21 37 2 12 15 88 Indianapolis 0 0 0 0 55 21 76 NY Jets 1 10 18 5 14 22 70 Denver 0 2 8 53 1 2 66 San Diego 0 0 2 35 1 5 43 Baltimore 0 2 3 1 9 17 33 New England 0 2 2 0 4 11 19 Buffalo 0 0 1 0 2 5 8 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Houston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Arizona 14 23 47 16 0 0 100 NY Giants 48 22 9 1 9 5 94 Carolina 22 21 8 1 12 12 76 Washington 5 5 1 0 35 19 66 Tampa Bay 7 17 8 0 12 16 61 Chicago 0 1 11 40 0 1 53 Philadelphia 2 3 1 0 14 16 36 Green Bay 0 0 4 30 0 0 34 Atlanta 1 7 5 0 8 13 34 Dallas 1 1 1 0 9 14 25 Minnesota 0 0 3 11 0 1 15 New Orleans 0 1 2 0 1 3 6 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seattle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Playoff Probabilities Week 11
published on 11/21/2008
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The predicted division winner is the current division leader in all cases except the AFC East and in the NFC North. The NFC North currently has a 3 way tie for first.
The AFC East is interesting though. The Jets have a one game lead on Miami. The Jets won the only head to head to head matchup so far and the Jets have the better divisional record right now. Yet Miami's first place probability is nearly twice as much as the Jets. I know Miami has the easier future strength of schedule, but I didn't think it would be enough to overcome the fact that they trail the Jets by a full game right now.
That is surprising given the head-to-head win the Jets already have. My system just really loves Miami and is low on the Jets and Pats.
Until this week, it also favored San Diego over Denver, despite Denver's lead in the standings. If you consider that Denver has a two game lead, plus Denver won their first encounter, the prediction that Denver has "only" a 63% chance of winning the division is pretty surprising.
Despite the faults of the QB Passer Rating statistic, some of your readers (who use Firefox) might enjoy the following Greasemonkey* script to add the QB Passer Rating information into the nfl.com and sportsline.com GameCenters. (It also shows the % of each of the 4 rating components achieved.)
http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/37256
(* - Greasemonkey is a FF Add-on which can be installed here)
Looking at the in game win probabilities -- odd that Dallas gets a safety yet their win probability goes down.
A couple reasons it looks that way. SF's very bad field position already baked in a big advantage for Dallas. Also, the ensuing free kick gave Dallas relatively poor field position. On average teams get the ball back at their own 44. Dallas got it at the 20-something.