Week 10 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 10 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

0.50 DEN at CLE0.50
0.36 NO at ATL0.64
0.20 STL at NYJ0.80
0.63 JAX at DET0.37
0.51 BAL at HOU0.49
0.16 SEA at MIA0.84
0.60 BUF at NE0.40
0.42 GB at MIN0.58
0.33 TEN at CHI0.67
0.82 CAR at OAK0.18
0.29 IND at PIT0.71
0.06 KC at SD0.94
0.27 NYG at PHI0.73
0.17 SF at ARI0.83

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10 Responses to “Week 10 Game Probabilities”

  1. Brian Burke says:

    Denver would have the slightest edge, 0.502 to 0.498.

  2. Anonymous says:

    wow. Tennessee at .33 against chi!!!!

    didnt see that coming. or NYG at .27. i know Philly playing good, but 3 to 1 against NYG. wow.

  3. Anonymous says:

    how do these probabilities corr. with beating the point spread. Ex. arizona at .83 but with spread of -9.5 or NE at .4 with a spread of +3

  4. Brian says:

    Good thing you gave Denver the edge. You picked up a game on Vegas with that one.

  5. Sean S says:

    What's the win-loss record of these predictions?

  6. Brian Burke says:

    59-25, counting last night's game. 70.2%.

    Probs for TEN and NYG do seem whacky to me too. Both could win, you never know. But I learned a while ago not go against my own system.

  7. Anonymous says:

    What would your ROI be if you played your model against moneylines?

  8. Brian Burke says:

    I don't know. What does ROI mean? Rate of...something?

  9. Anonymous says:

    ROI = return on investment (profit / money wagered)

  10. Brian Burke says:

    Don't know. Never bet anything, so I can't divide by zero. :)

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